Just now, Analog1888 said:

This was one of my favorite sequences.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 405 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2003 WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILL ADVIS FOR NRN ZONES TNGT. WILL ALSO REISSUE SPS FOR WIND CHILLS AND UPCOMING SNOW SUN NGT/MON. ETA/GFS DIFFER GREATLY IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYS. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE ETA IS OFF...SO I/LL RUN CLOSE TO THE AVN ON THIS PKG. AS A RESULT...ONLY CHC POS FOR SUN NGT AS THE ASSOC AREA OF PRECIP JUST SKIRTS OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY AS A SUBTLE CHANGE IN TRACK WOULD BRING SNOW IN SUN NGT. FOR MON...THE GFS PRECIP FIELDS LOOKS SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...BEING THAT WE/LL BE RELYING PRIMARILY ON UPPER DYNAMICS AT THAT PT. SNOW TAPERS OFF MON NGT. FAIR TUES. MARINE...SCA UP. GALE MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUN NGT AND ESPEC MON. .OKX... CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TNGT FOR CTZ005>008. NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TNGT FOR NJZ002>004. NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TNGT FOR NYZ067>070. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ANZ350-353-355-330-335-338. $$ EKH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 936 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2003 .OVERVIEW...BASED ON MDL TRENDS AND AFT COORD W/ SURROUNDING WFOS AND HPC...WL MAKE SUM RATHER SGFNT CHGS TO PRVS FCST PCKG. .PUBLIC... OVERNIGHT: WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF IN MST AREAS (XCP MAYBE URBAN AREAS) AND W/ DEWPTS AS LOW AS THEY ARE ALREADY (-5 TO -14F)...FEEL THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS NEED TO BE DROPPED. THIS DESPITE THIN CI VEIL ACRS RGN. WL DROP NEARLY ALL ZNS BY AT LST A CATEGORY. WIND CHILL ADVSY RMNS IN EFFECT ACRS NRN TIER. SUN INTO MON: MOST SGFNT CHGS BEING MADE HERE. 15/18Z GFS HAS COME A LTL FRTHR N W/ PCPN. THERE ARE ENUF SIMILARITIES BTWN GFS AND ETA ALG W/ TRENDS FM PRVS MDL RUNS TO HV SOME CONFIDENCE IN EVENTS FOR SUN AFTN INTO MON. DO FEEL THAT GFS QPF IS OVERDONE...BUT EVEN W/ CUTTING THAT QPF DOWN...STL LOOKING AT ENOUGH QPF (EVEN AT 10:1 SNOW:LIQUID RATIO) TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MDLS ALSO ARE A BIT QUIKER TO BRING MEASURABLE PCPN INTO MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY INTO METRO AREA. WL NOT BE AS AGRESSIVE W/ PCPN AMTS AS GFS AS STATED ABV...BUT WL MENT 1-2 FOR SUN NITE IN NYC VCNTY AND LI...ARND 1 INLAND. HV UPPED AMTS SUM FOR ENTIRE AREA FOR MON...AND THAT MAY NOT BE HI ENUF IF MDLS CONT THEIR NWD TREND. ONE FACTOR THAT COULD WORK AGAINST US AS WAS THE CASE W/ EVENT CURRENTLY S OF RGN IS VRY STG SFC HI TO THE NORTH WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP PCPN OUT OF FAR NRN TIER UNTIL LT SUN NIGHT. HV SLOWED GFS TIMING SOMEWHAT...BUT PROBABLY SOME AT LST -SN BY ERLY SUN EVNG.

1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 936 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2003 .OVERVIEW...BASED ON MDL TRENDS AND AFT COORD W/ SURROUNDING WFOS AND HPC...WL MAKE SUM RATHER SGFNT CHGS TO PRVS FCST PCKG. .PUBLIC... OVERNIGHT: WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF IN MST AREAS (XCP MAYBE URBAN AREAS) AND W/ DEWPTS AS LOW AS THEY ARE ALREADY (-5 TO -14F)...FEEL THAT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS NEED TO BE DROPPED. THIS DESPITE THIN CI VEIL ACRS RGN. WL DROP NEARLY ALL ZNS BY AT LST A CATEGORY. WIND CHILL ADVSY RMNS IN EFFECT ACRS NRN TIER. SUN INTO MON: MOST SGFNT CHGS BEING MADE HERE. 15/18Z GFS HAS COME A LTL FRTHR N W/ PCPN. THERE ARE ENUF SIMILARITIES BTWN GFS AND ETA ALG W/ TRENDS FM PRVS MDL RUNS TO HV SOME CONFIDENCE IN EVENTS FOR SUN AFTN INTO MON. DO FEEL THAT GFS QPF IS OVERDONE...BUT EVEN W/ CUTTING THAT QPF DOWN...STL LOOKING AT ENOUGH QPF (EVEN AT 10:1 SNOW:LIQUID RATIO) TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MDLS ALSO ARE A BIT QUIKER TO BRING MEASURABLE PCPN INTO MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY INTO METRO AREA. WL NOT BE AS AGRESSIVE W/ PCPN AMTS AS GFS AS STATED ABV...BUT WL MENT 1-2 FOR SUN NITE IN NYC VCNTY AND LI...ARND 1 INLAND. HV UPPED AMTS SUM FOR ENTIRE AREA FOR MON...AND THAT MAY NOT BE HI ENUF IF MDLS CONT THEIR NWD TREND. ONE FACTOR THAT COULD WORK AGAINST US AS WAS THE CASE W/ EVENT CURRENTLY S OF RGN IS VRY STG SFC HI TO THE NORTH WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP PCPN OUT OF FAR NRN TIER UNTIL LT SUN NIGHT. HV SLOWED GFS TIMING SOMEWHAT...BUT PROBABLY SOME AT LST -SN BY ERLY SUN EVNG.

CURRENTLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS JUST STARTING TO REACH UP INTO THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...AS OUR DRY LOWER LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. UNDER A FAIRLY THICK CANOPY OF CIRRUS...DAYTIME HEATING WAS SEVERELY LIMITED TODAY...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES DID NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY. AS OF 3 PM...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE MID TEENS. AS THE SNOW HAS STARTED TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA...EXISTING CLOUD DECKS HAVE STARTED TO DROP...AND NEW LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ADVECTED IN. BIG PICTURE...A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS STORM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...SNOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TONIGHT...AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE GO ALONG. BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY...WE WILL FELL THE FULL BRUNT OF A NOREASTER. WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW...WE WILL SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...LOOK FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST...AND SLIGHTLY LESS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. I AM LOOKING FOR THIS TO BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THIS IS THE REASON WHY I HAVE HELD DOWN THE SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS. STORM STARTS TO PULL AWAY TUESDAY EVENING...AND WELL SEE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEN...SHOULD SEE A BIG IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

Just now, Analog1888 said:

CURRENTLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS JUST STARTING TO REACH UP INTO THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...AS OUR DRY LOWER LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. UNDER A FAIRLY THICK CANOPY OF CIRRUS...DAYTIME HEATING WAS SEVERELY LIMITED TODAY...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES DID NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY. AS OF 3 PM...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE MID TEENS. AS THE SNOW HAS STARTED TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA...EXISTING CLOUD DECKS HAVE STARTED TO DROP...AND NEW LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ADVECTED IN. BIG PICTURE...A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS STORM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...SNOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TONIGHT...AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE GO ALONG. BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY...WE WILL FELL THE FULL BRUNT OF A NOREASTER. WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW...WE WILL SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...LOOK FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST...AND SLIGHTLY LESS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. I AM LOOKING FOR THIS TO BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THIS IS THE REASON WHY I HAVE HELD DOWN THE SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS. STORM STARTS TO PULL AWAY TUESDAY EVENING...AND WELL SEE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEN...SHOULD SEE A BIG IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

...WL BE ISSUING A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ENTIRE CWA... SNOW IS GRDLY SPREADING NEWD...ALREADY SEEING AMTS OF 1-2 WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING FOR A WHILE. WL UP AMOUNTS FOR THE OVRNGT... WHICH IN TURN WL UP THE TOTAL AMTS FOR THE EVENT. JUST GOT A QUIK PEEK AT ERLY PTNS OF 00Z ETA AND GIVEN UVV FIELD PROGGED TO MOV IN THIS DIRECTION LTR TMRW...WL GO 6-10 ALL ZNS AND DOWNPLAY THE PL MIXING ERN ZNS A BIT. OTHR ADJUSTMENTS MINOR. WINDS HI ENUF AND CONFIDENCE IS HI ENUF TO ISSUE BLIZZARD WRNG. WL ISSUE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND NOT CONFINE TO JUST CSTL AREAS. REYNOLDS/MET

 

lol, THOSE AFD printed by @Analog1888 show just how bad the AVN (now gfs was then) and still is for the most part in Winter, even though it's had a few victories over the last few year.  I still say that is more broken clock than being right.

the morning of the Feb 2003 storm there was single digit temperatures with cloudy skies...it never made it out of the teens that day but did rise into the 20's the next day with heavy snow...

my last snow video was that storm...

 

I really miss the Old ETA. It was a good model especially with minor adjustments for biases

 

 

This was a fun one too

 

LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MDLS KEEP PRECIP OFFSHORE. I MAY PUT IN SOME FLURRIES FOR EARLY TNGT ACRS LONG ISLAND AND CT...I/LL CHECK RADARS...ETC BEFORE PRESS TIME. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLDY SKIES DUE TO HIER CLDS AND LOW LVL INVERSION. WEAK HI PRES NUDGES IN FROM THE W ON MON. CLOUDS EARLY...THEN SOME SUN PSBL. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRES PASSES OFFSHORE ON TUES. MDLS INDICATE NO SIG IMPACT TO LCL AREA. THE 12Z AVN DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRES E OF NC ON WED. THE 00Z MRF HAD HANDLED THIS SYS DIFFERENTLY. IF 12Z AVN IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...WED COULD BE VERY INTERESTING. WE/LL SEE IF TNGT/S 00Z RUN IS CONSISTENT. THANKS TO BOB FROM KDIX FOR THE 84 HR LOCATION OF THE LOW. THE MDLS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. I FOLLOWED THE AVN FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO THE RECENT WEIRDNESS OF THE OTHER TWO. MARINE...NO SIG TNGT. WINDS MAY INCR TO SCA CRIT ON TUES AS LOW MOVES UP THE CST. .OKX...NONE. EKH

564 FXUS61 KOKX 242055 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 345 PM EST MON JAN 24 2000 WE/RE HAVING TROUBLE SHIPPING OUR ZONES. HOPEFULLY THEY WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. FOR THIS PKG...WENT WITH THE AVN WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST RELIABLE OF LATE. I/LL PUT UP A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ERN CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND BASED ON AVN PRECIP AMTS. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW... PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END TUES NIGHT. I PUT A CHC OF FLURRIES IN FOR WED...UPPER TROF OVERHEAD. MARINE...PRES GRAD TIGHTENS AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SE. GALE UP. .OKX...GALE WARN...ANZ350-353-355-.330-335-338. WINTER STORM WATCH...NYZ078>081-CTZ007-008-010>012. EKH

FXUS61 KOKX 250206 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 915 PM EST MON JAN 24 2000 AFTER COOR AND A FURTHER WESTWARD THINKING...MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE...MORE IN LINE WITH 18Z ETA OUTPUT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR NYC...NASSAU COUNTY...CONNECTICUT EXCEPT FOR MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON COUNTY...NE NJ AND SRN WESTCHESTER COUNTY OF NY. WINTER WX ADV ELSEWHERE. WL HAVE PRODUCTS OUT ASAP. .OKX...GALE WARN...ANZ350-353-355-.330-335-338. WINTER STORM WARNING...NYZ071>076-NJZ003>006-011-CTZ005-006-009-010 WINTER WEATHER ADV...NYZ067>070-078>081-NJZ002-CTZ007-008-011-012 WICHROWSKI

good sight for old maps...

NCEP/NCAR v1 Reanalysis / North America (meteocentre.com)

9 hours ago, uncle w said:

good sight for old maps...

NCEP/NCAR v1 Reanalysis / North America (meteocentre.com)

These are the best looking ones. You can recreate anything 

Still blows my mind today this missed the big cities. Crazy. 

https://www.inquirer.com/news/john-bolaris-storm-forecast-bust-snow-march-2001-20210304.html

Feb 78 starts out in the sub tropics and backs in. 

 

 

1051 blocking high. Insane. 

That storm is #2 on my all time list of blizzards. 

#1 being King '96.

37 minutes ago, amugs said:

That storm is #2 on my all time list of blizzards. 

#1 being King '96.

FEB 1978 is still the king in Suffolk County Long Island where I now live. The combination of snow and wind produced drifts and buried cars unlike no other. 
 

just like the 1996 blizzard, the storm was greatly under measured in NYC and the 5 boroughs. I got 24 inches but the airports reported only 14-15.