1 minute ago, Blizzard said:

 

I remember Craig Allen saying 1 to 2 feet if the storm reached its potential  

 

 

that's his inner weenie coming out of him cuz he knew it looked beyond special, but that wasn't the official NWS forecast

 

 

5 minutes ago, USAwx said:

no one he was listening to

 

i have watched every piece of 96 video and i was 17 at the time so i have clear memories.

 

the city forecast was 10-15 the night before.  but that morning it was clear that was too low.

I remember them upping it as the storm was happening.   

Boom

 

:10 seconds mark night before.

 

10-15 right from Chris Martino Camino 

 

 

1 minute ago, USAwx said:

Boom

 

:10 seconds mark night before.

 

10-15 right from Chris Martino Camino 

 

 

 

Find Craig Allen - not TWC 

 

Thanks

3 minutes ago, Blizzard said:

 

Find Craig Allen - not TWC 

 

Thanks

well, he was on radio only

 

so i'm gonna tweet at him, see if he remembers.

Just now, USAwx said:

well, he was on radio only

 

so i'm gonna tweet at him, see if he remembers.

 

Bet : Dinner.

 

 

 

Look at this radar.  HOURS of over running before the coastal

 

snow and heavy snow back into Ohio

 

they don't make them like this anymore

 

 

and BOOOOM

 

this is sunday morning and here is the total increase  2:08 on the video

 

 

3 minutes ago, USAwx said:

 

Very cool.  I remember watching abc7 and them upping it.  I don't know anything about Craig's forecast.  Also my local guy Frank Lombardo (sp?) on 1450am upping totals.

Just now, FrankPizz said:

Very cool.  I remember watching abc7 and them upping it.  I don't know anything about Craig's forecast.  Also my local guy Frank Lombardo (sp?) on 1450am upping totals.

the 12z models sunday morning were showing 2-3 inches LE for the I-95 Corridor.  there is a TWC video when it came out and the guy doing the live coverage legit couldn't believe it.

 

that combined with how early it started and how much precip was on radar made everyone bump quick

 

i was still under a heavy snow warning  in orange county around noon time when upton finally just put everyone under a blizzard warning and said 2 feet come and get it.

12 minutes ago, USAwx said:

and BOOOOM

 

this is sunday morning and here is the total increase  2:08 on the video

 

 

 

I'm putting you on the hate list 

Just now, Blizzard said:

 

I'm putting you on the hate list 

you may be right about craig allen

 

but he isn't gonna write back so the world will never know. 

 

 

Just now, USAwx said:

you may be right about craig allen

 

but he isn't gonna write back so the world will never know. 

 

 

 

Maybe he will. I remember the phrase , if the storm reaches its potential its 1 to 2 feet.

 

But I swear the Tuesday prior I was going to the bank and his forecast was for a storm going off to our S and E

 

I'm pretty sure brother 

1 minute ago, Blizzard said:

 

Maybe he will. I remember the phrase , if the storm reaches its potential its 1 to 2 feet.

 

But I swear the Tuesday prior I was going to the bank and his forecast was for a storm going off to our S and E

 

I'm pretty sure brother 

so that is interesting.  because I remember craig allen talking about something brewing the sunday before.  that would have been the 1st runs of the euro to be out that far and euro was only once a day then

 

and yes, through the first few days of that everyone kept saying going to be a miss cuz they were looking at the MRF which was just as bad as the current gfs

 

ukie and euro were hot for that storm right away

 

you can read about it here.

 

bz-mrg.pdf (weather.gov)

 

 

The first indications of the potential for a major eastern U.S. snowstorm appeared in the medium-range forecasts issued by the HPC forecasters on January 1. The forecasts from the medium-range numerical models (MRF, ECMWF, and UKMET) that day verifying at 1200 UTC, Saturday, January 6, were indicating very different solutions with respect to the 500 mb flow across North America. The MRF was forecasting westerly 500 mb flow moving through the mean ridge position situated along approximately 120oW, with this flow then progressing eastsoutheastward into a weak mean 500 mb trough forecast across the eastern half of the United States (figure 2a). The ECMWF and UKMET models, however, were indicating less westerly flow moving through the mean ridge position along the west coast and subsequently had much more amplified upper ridges over this region (figures 2b and 2c). This more amplified upper ridge allowed for the ECMWF and UKMET to indicate the potential for a jet to dig southeastward into the base of an amplifying trough over the central portion of the United States on Saturday, January 6.

I even remember where i was when i first heard craig talk about it

 

going to a book store with my father 

and this is how the EE rule was born.  Euro and Eta match take it to the bank

 

"THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN GENERAL WE PREFER THE ETA MODEL...THE NGM APPEARS TO BE UP TO ITS TYPICAL BIAS OF HAVING THE SURFACE LOW WRAPPED TOO FAR BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW...AND THE LATEST AVN STILL LOOKS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND RATHER FLAT AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF HAS HANDLED THIS STORM PRETTY WELL FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND IT CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE AVN. THEREFORE.. THE ETA APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST ECMWF."

4 minutes ago, USAwx said:

and this is how the EE rule was born.  Euro and Eta match take it to the bank

 

"THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN GENERAL WE PREFER THE ETA MODEL...THE NGM APPEARS TO BE UP TO ITS TYPICAL BIAS OF HAVING THE SURFACE LOW WRAPPED TOO FAR BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW...AND THE LATEST AVN STILL LOOKS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND RATHER FLAT AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF HAS HANDLED THIS STORM PRETTY WELL FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND IT CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE AVN. THEREFORE.. THE ETA APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST ECMWF."

 

I'm serious when I say the models have gotten worse these days.

 

The Euro just flat out sucks now 

I can't trust anything outside 3 days.

Remember 2016 everyone was waiting for the Euro to load the night before and it got stuck lol.