We are going into p8 then p1.

 

That kills the SER.

 

 

The GEFS kills the SER by the 5th the EPS by the 7th.

 

GEFS 5th - 9th

 

 

 

 

 

 

Heres T Giving and the weekend 

if this mjo forecast is correct we just might see another white Christmas...

Here's your warmup..

its a 3 day warmup 

 

And this prob a plus 20 day

 

So it skews everyone's opinion on the cold because something cuts in between the 2 cold periods 

 

But we aren't in p8 until the 10th or so and still the models can't lose the cold air because the TPV is moving into S Canada.

Just now, uncle w said:

if this mjo forecast is correct we just might see another white Christmas...

 

I think the core of the period is the 5th - 25th.

And we snow mid month. 

 

- p8 p1 are being seen 200Chi and 850 anomalies.

3 hours ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

 

I think the core of the period is the 5th - 25th.

And we snow mid month. 

 

- p8 p1 are being seen 200Chi and 850 anomalies.

Question for you is there a lag time before the atmosphere reacts to the MJO when it goes into phase 8

Just now, chief7 said:

Question for you is there a lag time before the atmosphere reacts to the MJO when it goes into phase 8

Lag time for mjo sensible effects around our area is 5-7 days 

5 minutes ago, chief7 said:

Question for you is there a lag time before the atmosphere reacts to the MJO when it goes into phase 8

 

5 days or so 

 

We need blocking to develop between the 10th - 15th to sit on top of the TPV.

 

I think we see a p8 difference around mid month 

 

We are getting the colder anomalies from T Giving onward - but I am just like you guys until it snows I stop looking for a bit.

We have to wait and see if this happens 

 

 

42 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

We have to wait and see if this happens 

 

 

What do you mean see if it happens? No 8?

17 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

What do you mean see if it happens? No 8?

 

Thats p8

850mb anomalies along w the 200Chi say p8 ..

 

If it happens then December happens 

2 hours ago, chief7 said:

 

I really 2017 

 

I like 2 SSW events 

 

Look how close this is 

 

 

10 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Not only do I think we go into p8 its possible that we continue into p1

 

 

We are tracking along with some very good Decembers

 

 

Early December p7 NINAs have looked this in some of the years were there was warming at 10mb and 50mb

 

 

The winds dont always reverse however the warming over the pole ultimately releases a major Arctic outbreak south during all of those months. 

 

My thoughts are mid month or around Christmas you may see the same result 

 

 

 

Entering phase 1 in a Nina is really rare. So rare the plot site doesn’t have enough data to make a map for it. So if we do get there that shows us how weak the Nina influence is 

Someone please move my last post to  the December thread 

1 hour ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Not only do I think we go into p8 its possible that we continue into p1

 

 

We are tracking along with some very good Decembers

 

 

Early December p7 NINAs have looked this in some of the years were there was warming at 10mb and 50mb

 

 

The winds dont always reverse however the warming over the pole ultimately releases a major Arctic outbreak south during all of those months. 

 

My thoughts are mid month or around Christmas you may see the same result 

 

 

 

Someone pls move this post into December