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The MJO Channel - All MJO, all the time (New plots posted daily 9:15am from October 15-March 15)

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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1 hour ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Someone pls move this post into December 

I moved it back.

    • Like 1
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    • THE GREAT PB
      THE GREAT PB

      I posted a week or so ago that in November NINAs the MJO likes to slow and the RIMMS typically are too fast in the LR.   So the MJO is doing as expected.   I have to see p7 in Dece

    • THE GREAT PB
      THE GREAT PB

      Dec will feel like winter.    Lets hope it looks like winter.   I think we will b tracking in December and combine that with BN temps and Christmas all should feel in Holiday spiri

    p8 Then p1

     

    image.thumb.png.43720e76698d4a7809b196967a62d0b0.png

     

    image.thumb.png.1894c0ee6cc9a1c0e7e840e8631243df.png

     

    • Like 1
    • Thumbs Up 3

    timing is everything...

    mjo_rmm.daily.20251123.png

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    • Like 4
    12 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    p8 Then p1

     

    image.thumb.png.43720e76698d4a7809b196967a62d0b0.png

     

    image.thumb.png.1894c0ee6cc9a1c0e7e840e8631243df.png

     

    I think the big question after that is when/where it goes into the COD.  If it goes into the COD in 1 or 2 or 1/2 borderline, we may have  a good pattern for a long time.

    • Like 3

    Could it be possibly SSW towards the end of December?image.thumb.png.7a3cfa8906c1def8fb12c8a9f9d1a171.png

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    • Thumbs Up 1
    • My God 1

    mjo_rmm.daily.20251124.png

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    • Like 2

    image.thumb.png.6f32aca3d43494f818fc72b3430dd9cd.png

    13 hours ago, chief7 said:

    Could it be possibly SSW towards the end of December?image.thumb.png.7a3cfa8906c1def8fb12c8a9f9d1a171.png

    is there a record for these members?...are they numbered and is there an accuracy record for each member?...that goes for other charts too...to many members spoil the forecast...

    • Like 1
    9 minutes ago, uncle w said:

    is there a record for these members?...are they numbered and is there an accuracy record for each member?...that goes for other charts too...to many members spoil the forecast...

    I don't know your answer I'm just going by where the previous chart was showing a couple days ago but now it's showing more of a decline in more members are going into the negative and I read  the state of the MJO chances are better for SSW to occur when it  is in phases seven and eight I could be wrong, very novice at the stuff still learning

    Just now, chief7 said:

    I don't know your answer I'm just going by where the previous chart was showing a couple days ago but now it's showing more of a decline in more members are going into the negative and I read  the state of the MJO chances are better for SSW to occur when it  is in phases seven and eight I could be wrong, very novice at the stuff still learning

    I'm still a novice in some ways...my question was for anyone who might know...

    • Like 1
    17 minutes ago, uncle w said:

    is there a record for these members?...are they numbered and is there an accuracy record for each member?...that goes for other charts too...to many members spoil the forecast...

     

    Each of those blue lines are a single ensemble member that measures 10hpa winds around the pole.

     

    The weakening will show up as deceleration at 10hpa and end up below the mean 

     

    There is usually a huge spread among the members

     

    But when they cluster they are accurate 

    • Like 3
    1 minute ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

     

    Each of those blue lines are a single ensemble member that measures 10hpa winds around the pole.

     

    The weakening will show up as deceleration at 10hpa and end up below the mean 

     

    There is usually a huge spread among the members

     

    But when they cluster they are accurate 

    which member is the most accurate? do they need 100 members to turn a light bulb?...

    • Like 1
    Just now, uncle w said:

    which member is the most accurate? do they need 100 members to turn a light bulb?...

    Im not sure if single ensemble members' accuracy are ever reported. Just the ensemble as a whole i think.

    • Like 1
    Just now, FrankPizz said:

    Im not sure if single ensemble members' accuracy are ever reported. Just the ensemble as a whole i think.

     

    The freak out away is on.

     

    They trying to sell that the PV strengthening is settled lol.

     

    Now im not expert but,,,,

     

    IMG_20251126_091146.png.70fe7223c38b7fdc9e7fc204731c5f96.png

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    • Like 3
    1 minute ago, FrankPizz said:

    Im not sure if single ensemble members' accuracy are ever reported. Just the ensemble as a whole i think.

    short range they all agree...after that its every man for himself....The AO and other indices are the same...

    • Like 3

    NCFS.png

    EMON.png

    7 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    NCFS.png

    EMON.png

    CFS goes into 2 then COD.  ECMWF 8 then COD, those are all good phases.

    • Like 2

    still looks good for mid December faze 8...

    mjo_rmm.daily.20251125.png

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    • Like 3

    image.thumb.png.e2f4896046da5cb30d1ce4019c7d0d81.png

     

     

    EPS goes into p8 then p1

    • Like 1

    image.thumb.png.6b2ec938aae4c27d71ef5dd43cff09ec.png

     

    This would be unprecedented 

    • Like 3

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