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The MJO Channel - All MJO, all the time (New plots posted daily 9:15am from October 15-March 15)

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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mjo

mjo_rmm.daily.20251206.png

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  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    I posted a week or so ago that in November NINAs the MJO likes to slow and the RIMMS typically are too fast in the LR.   So the MJO is doing as expected.   I have to see p7 in Dece

  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    Dec will feel like winter.    Lets hope it looks like winter.   I think we will b tracking in December and combine that with BN temps and Christmas all should feel in Holiday spiri

11 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

I guess we will see. I found him to be pretty crappy last year with the colder season overall. Eventually a warmer period will come to be though

I believe in 2005 the first 50 degree day came around the 20th...if there is going to be a warm up I hope its over before the 23rd...that will still give us enough time for some snow for Christmas...1975, 1980 and 1983 had a cold December with a little snow Christmas eve and day...

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    4 hours ago, FrankPizz said:

    I guess we will see. I found him to be pretty crappy last year with the colder season overall. Eventually a warmer period will come to be though

    But if you read the rest of his tweet, he also said he believes the cold will come back in the beginning of January

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    latest...

    mjo_rmm.daily.20251208.png

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    This MJO stuff is BS, rains in all quadrants and cold and dry just sucks

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    1 minute ago, VIRGAMAN said:

    This MJO stuff is BS, rains in all quadrants and cold and dry just sucks

    Haven't you had snow?

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    • Haha 1

    The 200Vp and 850 maps tell the trop forcing and patterns to a degree as do the WV maps

    21 hours ago, VIRGAMAN said:

    This MJO stuff is BS, rains in all quadrants and cold and dry just sucks

    can't really go all in on one teleconnection. Same with the -NAO-how many times do we hear -NAO and think a snowy pattern is coming?

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    • Thumbs Up 1
    10 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

    can't really go all in on one teleconnection. Same with the -NAO-how many times do we hear -NAO and think a snowy pattern is coming?

    Really need the AO to go negative right now. Thats the biggest one IMO

    • Thumbs Up 1
    15 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

    can't really go all in on one teleconnection. Same with the -NAO-how many times do we hear -NAO and think a snowy pattern is coming?

    Until it connects with the SE Ridge.

    ....latest

    mjo_rmm.daily.20251210.png

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    3 hours ago, uncle w said:

    ....latest

    mjo_rmm.daily.20251210.png

    I'd rather go back to the 3 day forecasts, take no offense..this long range, MJO stuff means nothing. Cold Phases and a roasting Christmas week?

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    3 minutes ago, Keith P.A said:

    I'd rather go back to the 3 day forecasts, take no offense..this long range, MJO stuff means nothing. Cold Phases and a roasting Christmas week?

    Agree 100%.

    14 minutes ago, Keith P.A said:

    I'd rather go back to the 3 day forecasts, take no offense..this long range, MJO stuff means nothing. Cold Phases and a roasting Christmas week?

    We may not be roasting

    To buy into that completely in yet

    12 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    We may not be roasting

    To buy into that completely in yet

    Ne may be colder, rest of country pretty warm. Headlines will talk about the warmth though

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    interesting plot...

    mjo_rmm.daily.20251211.png

    ensplume_small.gif

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    latest...

    mjo_rmm.daily.20251214.png

    ensplume_full (1).gif

    3 minutes ago, uncle w said:

    latest...

    mjo_rmm.daily.20251214.png

    ensplume_full (1).gif

    So right now we are in phase 8..hopefully that will help us next week

    I don't trust these plots at all.

    They look so different from day to day. They're based on convection in the equatorial Pacific.

    We know from thunderstorm season how bad models can be with thunderstorms even on day one or two.

    How can we rely on this to be correct on day 10-14?

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    https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/topic/8387-the-mjo-channel-all-mjo-all-the-time-new-plots-posted-daily-915am-from-october-15-march-15/
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