39 minutes ago, Keith P.A said:

So right now we are in phase 8..hopefully that will help us next week

We are not in p8

We are in 5 / 6

10 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

We are not in p8

We are in 5 / 6

And we were never supposed to be anywhere near there. You see why I don't trust those plots?

13 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

We are not in p8

We are in 5 / 6

Just commenting what the chart says..it shows we are in 8 ..why even look at those charts anymore if they're wrong.Can we not post them anymore!

1 minute ago, Keith P.A said:

Just commenting what the chart says..it shows we are in 8 ..why even look at those charts anymore if they're wrong.Can we not post them anymore!

Yeh all the RIMMs are wrong.

Theres a standing wave in 5 6 that will bleed off later in the month

Then we will get a real p8

41 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

I don't trust these plots at all.

They look so different from day to day. They're based on convection in the equatorial Pacific.

We know from thunderstorm season how bad models can be with thunderstorms even on day one or two.

How can we rely on this to be correct on day 10-14?

we can't...

4 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Yeh all the RIMMs are wrong.

Theres a standing wave in 5 6 that will bleed off later in the month

Then we will get a real p8

is there a plot?

We are not in 8. You gotta look at hovmollers

p

The above posts are why long range forecasting is still not much better than 50-60% IF you do it right.

2 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

The above posts are why long range forecasting is still not much better than 50-60% IF you do it right.

That plot we have been following for years here..Today it says solid 8..if it is wrong for... TODAYS... forecast it should not be used

try making a forecast out of this AO forecast...a big downward trend but not by all members...

Ben Solo has done a great job this December..It's amazing it's been this cold with the strong Pacific jet..NYC is 8.8 below normal for the month..wow..Probably it will end up much less, but that's cold.

30 minutes ago, Keith P.A said:

That plot we have been following for years here..Today it says solid 8..if it is wrong for... TODAYS... forecast it should not be used

I mean we throw away models with initialization errors, right?

28 minutes ago, uncle w said:

try making a forecast out of this AO forecast...a big downward trend but not by all members...

And we don't know which members are good and which are not.

1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

And we don't know which members are good and which are not.

do they have an identity?...a number so we know the better ones?...which one is going neg 4sd?...

5 minutes ago, uncle w said:

do they have an identity?...a number so we know the better ones?...which one is going neg 4sd?...

I doubt it

latest

10 minutes ago, uncle w said:

latest

That doesn't look good, but it's already not doing what it's supposed to do based on that plot, so maybe we just don't pay attention to that this year?