Not really sure where to put this, but goes along with what Paul was just musing about.

 

New from Webb

I have pretty high confidence December is gonna try to make things real interesting this year.

I can’t quite figure out what’s going to happen in the heart of the winter this year. 

Do we get a mid winter thaw as we get an Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent orbit with another favorable S2S look later in January or do we keep the good times rolling throughout most of this period?

If the tropospheric circulation anomalies can get anchored into the stratosphere (a stratospheric warming event for ex), that’s probably how we can keep the good times rolling well into January. 

The stratosphere likely won’t matter much for this first round of mjo forcing in December, but it probably will be an important factor in January and February

I.e. could help keep the -NAO/-AO going beyond the timescale of the initial mjo forcing (as mentioned previously) or enhancing wave reflection Feb (+TNH) if its strong by then.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

23 minutes ago, USAwx said:

 

The constant theme for November over the past few years has been for the MJO to slow in p6 and p7.

 

 

 

p7 in November is AN but the slower and higher the amplitude the more likely the strat gets attacked. 

 

 

 

 

p7 and p8 in December are BN so if we keep a p7 long enough and regardless if it goes into p8 it will at least set us up for some December cold and a longer term strat event would show up after that. 

Thats what Massielo may be seeing as well.

Going into p7

 

Just now, THE GREAT PB said:

Going into p7

 

We need 7 faster. Need it in one week. 

1 hour ago, USAwx said:

We need 7 faster. Need it in one week. 

No, keep this slow progression.  Let it take until March to get to Phase 2.  That would be wonderful.

2 hours ago, USAwx said:

We need 7 faster. Need it in one week. 

 

The Euro is very slow 

 

Could be based off analogs where these waves slow in the MC in Novembers.

 

36 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

 

The Euro is very slow 

 

Could be based off analogs where these waves slow in the MC in Novembers.

 

I like slow.  Slow could mean 3 good months of winter.

I remember in 1995-96 the mjo spent a lot of time in the circle...

From gawx.

 

16 minutes ago, Ben H said:

Damn. They are out earlier now. I forgot 

Models don't look good over night