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The MJO Channel - All MJO, all the time (New plots posted daily 9:15am from October 15-March 15)

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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image.thumb.png.f86592e4b862bfd0c2f7310a07ef212a.png

 

 

I posted a week or so ago that in November NINAs the MJO likes to slow and the RIMMS typically are too fast in the LR.

 

So the MJO is doing as expected.

 

I have to see p7 in December in NINA years with - AAM and EQBOs.

 

The main p7 response is cold in December- and insofar as the November idea goes it all looks good.

 

You have 2 very different things during this period

You have a semi permanent 5050 feature showing up on the models along w HLB..

That helps set up E Canada and the Skis 

 

So considering that we are still warming b4 the 1st inning of winter the quick start still looks on target 

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    • THE GREAT PB
      THE GREAT PB

      I posted a week or so ago that in November NINAs the MJO likes to slow and the RIMMS typically are too fast in the LR.   So the MJO is doing as expected.   I have to see p7 in Dece

    • THE GREAT PB
      THE GREAT PB

      Dec will feel like winter.    Lets hope it looks like winter.   I think we will b tracking in December and combine that with BN temps and Christmas all should feel in Holiday spiri

    The GEFS to add to the above

     

    GMON.png

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    • Like 5

    We get the stronger wave as suggested by GEFS and GEPS it may have longer effects 

    G5PA2-5W4AAcsxt.png

    G5PA1GPWIAAS4kc.png

    G5PD_GeWYAAhM27.jpeg

    G5PCVIEXgAEeGof.png

    G5PCMq1XcAAD_m8.png

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    • Author

    Looks like a stall in 6 then back to warm 4

    ECMF_BC (15).png

    image.png.2e237d8a0189955fe486a0d0d05c0443.png

    2 minutes ago, USAwx said:

    Looks like a stall in 6 then back to warm 4

    ECMF_BC (15).png

     

    You make me not want to post 

    • Author
    35 minutes ago, THE GREAT PB said:

     

    You make me not want to post 

    Several members do just that. 

    42 minutes ago, USAwx said:

    Looks like a stall in 6 then back to warm 4

    ECMF_BC (15).png

    image.thumb.png.03430ddba9257f49babfe1edea86cdd0.png

    • Like 3
    12 minutes ago, Ben H said:

    image.thumb.png.03430ddba9257f49babfe1edea86cdd0.png

    Christmas snow ?

    • Like 1
    1 hour ago, Metfan88 said:

    Christmas snow ?

     

    OTG mid month yes

    • Like 2

     Hopefully it lasts thru.

    • Like 1

    IMG_20251109_132126.png

    image.thumb.png.118d6e743495c2fbd7f91130c32c0192.png

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    looks warm for rest of month if this is true

     

    ECMF.png

     

     

    ECMF_BC.png

    image.thumb.jpeg.bd28ba3f29e582a9c14b23b499769b7e.jpeg

     

    SOI crashing. Gonna propel MJO into favorable phases and reinforce a N WPO, EPO +PNA

    • Like 3

    image.thumb.png.41c3f9d94fcbee72e12bf126bf065606.png

    • Like 3
    8 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    image.thumb.png.41c3f9d94fcbee72e12bf126bf065606.png

    Lots of stronger amp phase 8s in there

    • Like 2
    On 11/5/2025 at 11:20 AM, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    -ENSO 

    p7 in November weakens strat for December 

    -AAM helps weaken strat

     

    Look for December to be - 3 with plenty of blocking 

     

     

     

    Screenshot_20251105_111813_Gallery.jpg

    Screenshot_20251105_111824_Gallery.jpg

     

     

     

    Screenshot_20251112_212407_Chrome.jpg

    Screenshot_20251112_212419_Chrome.jpg

    Screenshot_20251112_212532_Chrome.jpg

    Screenshot_20251112_153034_Messages.jpg

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    • Like 4

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