Slow roll thru p7

 

p8 mid December 

 

 

 

Anyone have December p7 - ENSO 500 ? 

Found it

 

I like this.

 

 

Loop into 7 then 8

 

 

40 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

Loop into 7 then 8

 

 

 

I like that the TPV is in E Canada next week and never moves 

 

So even w a SER you have a - EPO / - WPO you have a great source region filling those troughs 

You can see the black contour (MJO) slowly sliding eastward over the next few weeks. The loop in 7 may be caused by the Maritime Continent trying to slow down the MJO pulse 1st week of December, and why the black line becomes much more elongated then.

 

9 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

You can see the black contour (MJO) slowly sliding eastward over the next few weeks. The loop in 7 may be caused by the Maritime Continent trying to slow down the MJO pulse 1st week of December, and why the black line becomes much more elongated then.

 

 

 

Ive been posting about how the MJO likes to slow in November 

That said p7 w the TPV position is more than fine.

 

 

 

 

 

Then we go into p8 here.

 

 

I don't want the SPV in the OHV

 

Georgia would snow 

If this has a clue to the depth and breath of this MJO wave, as I said 2 days ago with this and yesterday it'll get bigger, slower and stronger. We are definitely going to phase 1.

Book it Dano!!

 

 

5 minutes ago, amugs said:

If this has a clue to the depth and breath of this MJO wave, as I said 2 days ago with this and yesterday it'll get bigger, slower and stronger. We are definitely going to phase 1.

Book it Dano!!

 

 

 

 

Thats all p7 brother 

 

However the EPS goes into p8 here

@CooL said Griteater says 8 1 2 

 

I agree here as Webb pointed out the mid troposphere in the Tropics is cooling and that should enhance the wave.

 

The EPS is picking up on that here.

 

1 minute ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

 

Yeh. Its going to battle w the SER.

 

So we need a timely press.

In phase 7 it’ll battle with it but with a weak Nina that Se ridge *should* be easier to beat down. Then phase 8 you shouldn’t have to worry about it. Phase 1 I’m not sure if I have to check but also have to see what enso is like by then. It could be neutral by phase 1 if phase 1 were to come. 

7 minutes ago, Ben H said:

In phase 7 it’ll battle with it but with a weak Nina that Se ridge *should* be easier to beat down. Then phase 8 you shouldn’t have to worry about it. Phase 1 I’m not sure if I have to check but also have to see what enso is like by then. It could be neutral by phase 1 if phase 1 were to come. 

 

Yes but we don't get into p8 for 2 weeks 

7 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

 

Yes but we don't get into p8 for 2 weeks 

Oh yeah, it’s gonna be a slow roll. Especially with the wave getting stronger 

15 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

 

Yes but we don't get into p8 for 2 weeks 

 

One thing that will help will be the tropospheric response to the SSWE - we often see Scandinavian ridging develop in response to a warming event, which in turn should help press cold air farther southeast.

I want to address stupid peiple posting idiotic stuff.

 

 

Here the idiot poster who was barking about a warm December and strong PV from late October has now retreated to oh the vortex will strengthen in January 

Completely glossing over his latest in a long string of busts 

 

 

Here the poster implies that because we had a - ENSO in Dec 96 along w a EQBO just because the PV strengthened in January must mean its going to happen again,  we will torch and all will be fine 

 

 

What the poster didn't look at was why did the PV strength in Jan 97.

 

Well maybe because the MJO went tru 3 4 5 6  in December which would naturally allow for the PV to recoup.

 

 

 

So what do we have this December  ? 

The complete opposite 

 

7 8 1

 

 

 

The depth of posting away is that of an adolescent looking for attention 

 

Don't get me started on Don Sutherland , his idea of a W December trough is befitting of the hack that he is.

 

I challenged Don or any of those other guys to come here and post the junk we see away 

7 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

I want to address stupid peiple posting idiotic stuff.

 

 

Here the idiot poster who was barking about a warm December and strong PV from late October has now retreated to oh the vortex will strengthen in January 

Completely glossing over his latest in a long string of busts 

 

 

Here the poster implies that because we had a - ENSO in Dec 96 along w a EQBO just because the PV strengthened in January must mean its going to happen again,  we will torch and all will be fine 

 

 

What the poster didn't look at was why did the PV strength in Jan 97.

 

Well maybe because the MJO went tru 3 4 5 in December which would naturally allow for the PV to recoup.

 

 

 

So what do we have this December  ? 

The complete opposite 

 

7 8 1

 

 

 

The depth of posting away is that of an adolescent looking for attention 

 

Don't get me started on Don Sutherland , his idea of a W December trough is befitting of the hack that he is.

 

I challenged Don or any of those other guys to come here

 

They will not they are puss ies.

I will carve them up and they know it 

Paul, Don seems to be coming around to some snow chances in December.  Seems like he is changing his idea a little bit.  

7 minutes ago, Blizzard2020 said:

Paul, Don seems to be coming around to some snow chances in December.  Seems like he is changing his idea a little bit.  

 

I haven't seen that.

 

I get people's bias - but these guys post that if the 10hpa doesn't reverse the warming at 10mb and 50mb aren't setting the stage for a cold outbreak 

 

The definition of a SSW event is a real reversal at 10hpa - but when you warm those upper levels of the atmosphere you only need to disrupt it, weaken it or stretch it for the cold to follow.

 

The 10hpa aren't for forecasting purposes- by the time the wind reverses the TPV is already on the move and that takes place before any reversal or not.

 

Either way these guys are missing 15 days in p7 is what is help weaken the strat.

The longer its weak the longer the outbreak 

34 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

I want to address stupid peiple posting idiotic stuff.

 

 

Here the idiot poster who was barking about a warm December and strong PV from late October has now retreated to oh the vortex will strengthen in January 

Completely glossing over his latest in a long string of busts 

 

 

Here the poster implies that because we had a - ENSO in Dec 96 along w a EQBO just because the PV strengthened in January must mean its going to happen again,  we will torch and all will be fine 

 

 

What the poster didn't look at was why did the PV strength in Jan 97.

 

Well maybe because the MJO went tru 3 4 5 6  in December which would naturally allow for the PV to recoup.

 

 

 

So what do we have this December  ? 

The complete opposite 

 

7 8 1

 

 

 

The depth of posting away is that of an adolescent looking for attention 

 

Don't get me started on Don Sutherland , his idea of a W December trough is befitting of the hack that he is.

 

I challenged Don or any of those other guys to come here and post the junk we see away 

 

Agree that 1996 is not a good analog at all. MJO on the wrong side of the globe in Dec.