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The MJO Channel - All MJO, all the time (New plots posted daily 9:15am from October 15-March 15)

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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the enso in 1996-97 stayed weak la nina thru the winter...This year is forecast to be neutral by winters end...

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  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    I posted a week or so ago that in November NINAs the MJO likes to slow and the RIMMS typically are too fast in the LR.   So the MJO is doing as expected.   I have to see p7 in Dece

  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    Dec will feel like winter.    Lets hope it looks like winter.   I think we will b tracking in December and combine that with BN temps and Christmas all should feel in Holiday spiri

1 minute ago, uncle w said:

the enso in 1996-97 stayed weak la nina thru the winter...This year is forecast to be neutral by winters end...

It’s projected to be dead neutral by New Year’s Day 

image0.gif

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    • Like 2
    2 hours ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

     

    Yes but we don't get into p8 for 2 weeks 

    Image

     

    It looks as if DEc 5th we are enetering phase 8 then loop back for a week then back into 8. IF we can get this into and  loop in 8 then....

    This aligns with what I posted on tthe GEFS wave propogation. Interetsing since the last few days it had the loop in the middle of 7 

     

    WPO

    1763596800-TGGECKVX23cgrb2.png

    EPO

    1763596800-11iZI5p0JVcgrb2.png

     

    There the cold air Siberian Express push

    • Like 5

    data only goes back 20 years with the old mjo ...I remember being able to get the 1995-96 old plots...I remember the mjo was in faze 8 in early Jan and stayed around or in the circle all winter...the is a post in our archives with it...

    • Like 2

    Notice the warming off the eastern African coast in the IO = Phase 1 and 2 advection for a MJO phase?

    mjo_phase_location.jpg

    Notice teh warming in the GOA and the cooling off the Japan Coast and arm blob propgating east - wagons east !! Keep that forarwd motion going and it'll be in the GOA by mid Dec. IF this happens it will strengthen our - WPO /-EPO combo and +PNA. Time will tell.

    Laslty some cooling west of the Maritime Region 3 and 4.

     

    Image

     

    TODAY 

    image.thumb.png.0a2080c63dfe3ec43500f8e3c2072cd8.png

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    17 hours ago, uncle w said:

    the enso in 1996-97 stayed weak la nina thru the winter...This year is forecast to be neutral by winters end...

    I had back to back snowstorms in December 1996, started as rain and went to heavy snow on both but it was confined to up here, I believe it was rain down your way.  the April fools day storm was great, heavy rain to wind whip snow.

    1 hour ago, VIRGAMAN said:

    I had back to back snowstorms in December 1996, started as rain and went to heavy snow on both but it was confined to up here, I believe it was rain down your way.  the April fools day storm was great, heavy rain to wind whip snow.

    we got rain ending as a little wet snow and the April Fools storm flooded my basement and ended as a few inches of snow...

    image.thumb.png.b235374816e0869a15b7e59603b5c78e.png

     

    Yesterdays Run for comparison:

    Image

     

    Offline

    23 minutes ago, amugs said:

     

    Yesterdays Run for comparison:

    Image

     

    Offline

     

     

     

    Yesterday we looped in 8

    Today we loop in 7

     

    Thats a step back 

     

    Hopefully the strat is weaker longer and we extend the cold 

    mjo_rmm.daily.20251119.png

    ensplume_small.gif

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    • Like 1

    Wow almost looks like 8 then COD

    15 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

    Wow almost looks like 8 then COD

     

     

     

    Gritearer believes we go into 1

    • Like 1

    Looks good? Wave keeps getting stronger. Showing 8 here on Dec 3rd as strong wave, no?IMG_2534.thumb.jpg.3fb16c0f83427aaa11fc1e65e7003c0b.jpg

    • Like 1
    6 minutes ago, amugs said:

    Looks good? Wave keeps getting stronger. Showing 8 here on Dec 3rd as strong wave, no?IMG_2534.thumb.jpg.3fb16c0f83427aaa11fc1e65e7003c0b.jpg

     

    Getting stronger 

    • Like 2

    image.thumb.png.c7509a5d8d4048a2607e7d02f468c1bb.png

    Screenshot_20251122_084818_Chrome.jpg

    Doesn't get anymore p8 than that 

    • Like 5
    • Thumbs Up 1

    image.thumb.png.96cde95a366fdf0f5061a0d7c1561051.png

     

     

    image.thumb.png.016b5ef37be63e9c71a4105d06469eb9.png

     

     

     

    image.thumb.png.1cc509c67df81c1314bf34bd36931115.png

     

    We are starting to see a consensus that the MJO will be moving into the W Hemisphere  

    • Like 3

    mjo_rmm.daily.20251120.png

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    • Like 3

    image.thumb.png.bdb3ff2e8ae6f115a108deabeb1336ca.png

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