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Tracking Winter Analogs

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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  • uncle w
    uncle w

    last year wasn't an official la nina...it didn't fit the criteria...It was neutral-...MEI was a la nina...this year the MEI has not been updated and might not be again...was it discontinued?...since 1

  • uncle w
    uncle w

    coldest Decembers 500mb maps since 1955... Dec......total snowfall... 1955...3" of snow 1958...4" 1960...18" 1962...5" 1963...11" 1976...5" 1980...3" 1989.

  • uncle w
    uncle w

    are we seeing the storm track for the winter or only for now and its wasted?...Nov 71 and Feb 72...Nov 95 and Jan 96?...TWT...

1 hour ago, Chris L said:

Very impressive analogs.

take away 1995-96 and the average is still 29" per year...1958-59 (weak el nino) was very cold but dry too...snowfall was about 45% of normal...same for 2007-08 (strong la nina) which wasn't that cold...

    • Like 1

    8/10 winters on that list were at least decent.

    • Author

    lots of early storm analogs on that list

    are we seeing the storm track for the winter or only for now and its wasted?...Nov 71 and Feb 72...Nov 95 and Jan 96?...TWT...

    • Like 1
    • My God 1
    1 hour ago, USAwx said:

    Updated analogs

     

    8 to 14 Day Analogs

    More of a mixed bag today. The eastern trough is further north and the western ridge is bigger. We need everything near Alaska to move east.. the east may need to warm for a while between 11/10 and 11/20, but it should reload even stronger after that.

    • Like 1
    • Author
    3 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

    More of a mixed bag today. The eastern trough is further north and the western ridge is bigger. We need everything near Alaska to move east.. the east may need to warm for a while between 11/10 and 11/20, but it should reload even stronger after that.

    just tweeted this

     

     

    maybe there is a relaxation for a week or so after this, before more cold and storms come for end of month

     

     

    but remember, the gfs looked wonky today, none of the other models looked like it

     

     

    • Like 1
    • Author

    Getting some 03 04 vibes in terms of November into early December 

    image.png.274520f4c07cc4b9bae8684fcc5139ac.pngI like 1955...cold start...snowy ending...

    • Like 2

    Screenshot_20251028_134700_Chrome.jpg

    • Author
    6 minutes ago, THE GREAT PB said:

    Screenshot_20251028_134700_Chrome.jpg

    So much warmer especially off Indonesia 

    cu

    44 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    Screenshot_20251028_134700_Chrome.jpg

     

    current map has a more distinguished fish filet look...la nina looks stronger on that map than the numbers for it...

    33 minutes ago, uncle w said:

    cu

    current map has a more distinguished fish filet look...la nina looks stronger on that map than the numbers for it...

     

    The anomalies in the PACIFIC both AN and BN are obvious but the difference are in the same locations and that's crucial for areas of forcing 

    27 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

     

    The anomalies in the PACIFIC both AN and BN are obvious but the difference are in the same locations and that's crucial for areas of forcing 

    Imo this year looks even better by alaska

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    https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/topic/8390-tracking-winter-analogs/
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