1 hour ago, USAwx said:

That map does not look good, but 1983 appears on there twice and 1977 is on there, so we'll see.  We really need to see consistent good maps by around Nov 15.

7 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

That map does not look good, but 1983 appears on there twice and 1977 is on there, so we'll see.  We really need to see consistent good maps by around Nov 15.

Yea def no bueno

1 minute ago, USAwx said:

Yea def no bueno

The good news is there is time for things to move.  The ridge over the Central CONUS and the ridge over the Bering Sea both move northeast and it becomes a great pattern, so, unless we see that for like a week straight, let's exercise some patience.

5 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

That map does not look good, but 1983 appears on there twice and 1977 is on there, so we'll see.  We really need to see consistent good maps by around Nov 15.

these maps change every day but 1999 keeps coming up...1999 had a warm start...three good weeks then back to the same old...1998 to...it holds the record for the latest freezing date...Very warm fall...I'm not expecting that...so far, the cool spells are long and benign...30 days from now it would be 10 degrees colder with the same pattern...20 degrees in December...If we get this pattern in December, the second half will have a week or two with lows in the 20's and highs in the 30's...Cold enough to snow if we get a coastal storm...

32 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

That map does not look good, but 1983 appears on there twice and 1977 is on there, so we'll see.  We really need to see consistent good maps by around Nov 15.

That’s a phase 6 November 

4 hours ago, Analog1888 said:

That map does not look good, but 1983 appears on there twice and 1977 is on there, so we'll see.  We really need to see consistent good maps by around Nov 15.

November looking like a torch too. Just like October. I fully expect DJF to be a torch. 

This IMO is going to be a nation wide dogshit winter like 11-12. 

 

SOI at 12. Damn. Might tickle a strong Nina. 

 

The big winter forecasts might go down in flames. Double dip Nina's are bad juju. 

 

PAC IS KING 

2008-09, 2017-18, 2020-21 were all 2nd year Nina.

5 hours ago, Snowlover76 said:

SOI at 12. Damn. Might tickle a strong Nina. 

 

The big winter forecasts might go down in flames. Double dip Nina's are bad juju. 

 

PAC IS KING 

MJO driven. Already seeing the SOI push slowdown now as the mjo progresses into phase 5 then 6

6 hours ago, Snowlover76 said:

SOI at 12. Damn. Might tickle a strong Nina. 

 

The big winter forecasts might go down in flames. Double dip Nina's are bad juju. 

 

PAC IS KING 

Its October

 

Relax

13 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

Its October

 

Relax

He's entitled to his opinion

 

 

last year wasn't an official la nina...it didn't fit the criteria...It was neutral-...MEI was a la nina...this year the MEI has not been updated and might not be again...was it discontinued?...since 1950 we haven't seen a la nina after a neutral neg season...this year could end up neutral neg again...2013-14 was a second year neutral neg...1962-63 and 1967-68 were second year neutral neg years...both very cold but on the dry side keeping snowfall totals below average...

77 78 wow

1 minute ago, USAwx said:

77 78 wow

2002-03, 2009-10, and 2000-01 in there too

Only 3 bad winters out of the 10

la nina analogs form this list...1998, 2007, 1984 and 2000...1959 was a neutral year...2002 and 1959 had a -5sd AO before December...2002 in Oct and 1959 mid Nov...I think the el nino years cary less weight...

23 hours ago, Analog1888 said:

2008-09, 2017-18, 2020-21 were all 2nd year Nina.

FEBRUARY 2021 Best February ever, snowed every day in my area and 33.4 inches