24 minutes ago, Mjh609 said:

This was so clutch this year. I only want to do the 36786435774367754 leaves once. Recent years feels like I’m waiting forever for them to fall so I can set up Christmas. 

Exactly.   The leaves all fell within like 2 weeks from all kinds of trees.  I did one big cleanup last week.  Tomorrow ill do a mow and then im done. Easiest I can remember 

7 hours ago, FrankPizz said:

Exactly.   The leaves all fell within like 2 weeks from all kinds of trees.  I did one big cleanup last week.  Tomorrow ill do a mow and then im done. Easiest I can remember 

we still have some leaves let on trees here...

Not Twitter but Eric snodgrass is great. He does a heavy Ag focus but hes got great pattern recognition 

 

 

1 hour ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

 

 

 

Gritearer believes we go into 1

 Webb shows this

 

 

 

17 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

 

 

Yeh the post T Giving trough has a cutter on the backside 

If we get into p8 by the 5th thats the next step down and would kill the SE ridge. 

 

The core of the coldest air is probably the 10th - 25th.

 

Just going to depend on how long the PV remains displaced and how much blocking develops.

1995 was the last time December had a cold and snowy period from the 10th-25th with no big thaws...1963 was just as good during that period...I still want the week before Christmas to have a significant storm...as long as it's cold we have a chance...last year we had a little snow Christmas eve...this year I like the chances for another pre Christmas snowfall..

He seems very bullish on extreme cold this winter

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

 

 

 

Dang.  That SE ridge is gonna be an issue early winter.  

 

4 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Dang.  That SE ridge is gonna be an issue early winter.  

 

 

 

Im 5050. I think from the 5th onwards it starts to get overwhelmed.

 

My core is Dec 5 - 25 

 

The SSW / p8 combo is going to be heard from

 

@SnowMiser123 dropped in a sick + NAO SER 500.

 

 

Dec 1 - 15 is probably an overall period where its cold 

Cutters from T Giving through the 5th etc

 

If someone starts a Dec thread I will drop in a big monthly today 

• Euro 30 day for the Weatherbell Thanksgiving to Christmas cold

Joe Bastardi
Nov 22 2025

Euro 30 day for the Weatherbell Thanksgiving to Christmas cold

As it turns out The Thanksgiving outbreak ( it now is going to get dang cold with this first shot) is for the eastern people that are demanding instant cold and snow, the start of the back and forth that in totality is COLDER THAN NORMAL. But phase 7 as is seen clearly in the correlations is not the coldest phase for the east. And in fact the evolution of this is almost identical to how Florida gets a freeze. The southeast ridge fights as it keeps getting colder and snowier, centered in the heartland, and then the dam breaks

But where the Euro is likely wrong is Texas. Because models even in 2025 habitually underestimate the amount of cold that comes to Texas, especially in phase 7

But I am amazed at how a busted idea is ignored because everyone is moving to what is going on

This is a darn cold shot coming Thanksgivng weekend

Look at this

ending 12z Friday

Ending 12z Saturday

Sunday

Monday

 

 

Oh but it warms up after that

for a few days. BUT ITS COLDER, WAY COLDER THAN MODELING HAD A WEEK AGO

Look at this a week ago for 00z Friday

 

 

Look what it looks like now

 

So everyone is upset that we go to this for a while after

 

its like we forget about what happens in front

 

There will likely come a 2-3 week period in the east where almost every day is below normal. But the way the cold is sticking its nose in now, which it does in the negative WPO is through back and forth. That euro looks almost identical to the WPO- analog. So what's the problem?

 

 

( which we have been pointing out, that the southeast ridge fights in phase 7 but that is why you can lay down more snow cover for even colder in phase

I have had this on ad nauseam but again, phase 7 December

is not this way every day and I think when we total up the period we are in phase 7

but phase 8

I want you to look at this. 1968,1980,1983,1989

Dec 7

Christmas

 

Patience Grasshopper, gotta light all the candles first

HUMINA!!!

 

 

29 minutes ago, amugs said:

HUMINA!!!

 

 

Another board where Webb posts on, I mentioned @SnowMiser123s post of Dec 2013 and what Dec eps had for this year, and he liked my post.  I wonder if he looked more into it and posted that.  

4 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

Another board where Webb posts on, I mentioned @SnowMiser123s post of Dec 2013 and what Dec eps had for this year, and he liked my post.  I wonder if he looked more into it and posted that.  

 

I remember how often models were too warm in the extended range, and how much they had to correct colder as we got closer in time that winter.

checking these analogs...

I liked 1955, 1961 and 1967...61 is the #1...67 had a very cold November...61 had a slow step down to December...

1984 was the warmest Dec on record at the time...1990 also but both had late dec snowstorms in a sea of warmth...2013 looks good

too...1968 had its coldest temperature of the winter on 12/10 when it dropped to nine in NYC...1980 saw a minus one on Christmas day...1983 was 4 degrees Christmas day...1989 had a very cold week leading up to Christmas with a few single digit days...

1955 had some single digit temps before Christmas...1967 was on the mild side...slightly above average...1956 was mild...1961 had a mid month cold shot and a 6-10" snowfall on the 24th...1962 had a very cold week mid month and the month ended near zero...1964 was cold before a Christmas torch...1973 was on the mild side but it had the biggest ice storm mid month...1979 was on the mild side with a torch Christmas...1980 and 83 had a record cold Christmas...1984 was mild...1990 was mild...1995 had a mid month cold shot and a few nice snows...1996 was mild with no snow...2004 was benign...2009 had a big storm on the 20th...2010 had a blizzard on the 26th...2013 had some snow before a pre Christmas torch...2014 was mild...

Very interesting 

 

 

That SE RIdge could actually help overrunning events, if everything is oriented correctly.

Just now, Analog1888 said:

That SE RIdge could actually help overrunning events, if everything is oriented correctly.

Meh. More often than not the suck