If you want to really get into the weeds, this trough split appears to be made possible from the trends we have seen for this coming Friday.

Enough energy will end up leaving the main west trough later next week to make Friday/Saturday much colder than what it was forecast to be a few days ago. That in turn leaves less energy behind across the main west coast trough, making it more susceptible to get torn apart by the -WPO/-EPO block.

A mega -WPO block & a mega -NAO block to end the GFS run.

1 minute ago, SnowMiser123 said:

A mega -WPO block & a mega -NAO block to end the GFS run.

That sounds very familiar with the analogs...

58 minutes ago, uncle w said:

it snowed a weeks or a week before Christmas in 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020...only 2009's snowfall lasted to Christmas day before a Grinch storm...2002 had the Christmas afternoon snowfall...

And of course in 1995.

5 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

A mega -WPO block & a mega -NAO block to end the GFS run.

MEGA

New GFS is a lot colder overall, especially after 12/20 for much of the CONUS

Euro does not split the trough as cleanly as the GFS/CMC - will end up being warmer for Christmas week, but with a snow chance on Xmas.

1 F$%&*(( monster cutter is the death blow of an entire months worth of work.

Thats the massive warmup everyone humped.

Winter returns shortly thereafter and looks to get interesting for late December and early January

Plus there was a 10mb split 2 days ago thats going to show itself mid month.

If not for the 1 cutter this could have a unbelievable 6 to 8 week period of cold.

And the snow TBD

Euro Xmas night snow

2 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Euro Xmas night snow

-NAO saves the day:

Anyone saying torch is gonna be dead wrong. Absolutely no evidence of a northeast torch.

D 1-5.

D 5 - 10

D 10 - 15

Kill me

8 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Kill me

lol out west?

37 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

1 F$%&*(( monster cutter is the death blow of an entire months worth of work.

Thats the massive warmup everyone humped.

Winter returns shortly thereafter and looks to get interesting for late December and early January

Plus there was a 10mb split 2 days ago thats going to show itself mid month.

If not for the 1 cutter this could have a unbelievable 6 to 8 week period of cold.

And the snow TBD

Very similar to 2013

3 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

lol out west?

For like 90% of the country this winter is a complete train wreck so far. Complete dead ratter. And good luck maintaining anything with this

Just now, Snowlover76 said:

For like 90% of the country this winter is a complete train wreck so far. Complete dead ratter. And good luck maintaining anything with this

in mid-January 1957 the AO was +5sd and NYC got 5" of snow and a zero-degree morning...The late January 2015 storm had a very positive AO...sometimes it doesn't match the sensible weather...last year the ao went to -5SD...NYC just got some cold from it...

3 minutes ago, uncle w said:

in mid-January 1957 the AO was +5sd and NYC got 5" of snow and a zero-degree morning...The late January 2015 storm had a very positive AO...sometimes it doesn't match the sensible weather...last year the ao went to -5SD...NYC just got some cold from it...

Yeah I put him on ignore. He makes one nonsense post after another and if you try to reason with him, he either disappears or calls you names.

It's better not to feed the troll.

9 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

For like 90% of the country this winter is a complete train wreck so far. Complete dead ratter. And good luck maintaining anything with this

I like the downward trend