Gfs keeps getting colder close to Xmas.

15 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Cold weekend

Very short warmup!!!

AI gfs

GFS tries to sweeten its idea for Xmas compared to its previous runs.

All of the Ai models snow next week

So does the GFS op

1 hour ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

All of the Ai models snow next week

So does the GFS op

Euro is horrendous

We just had the coldest December 1 to December 15. Since 2005. We also have had a snowstorm that a large majority of the people on the board received. The big warm-up that was advertised for Christmas week is looking less and less likely and the fact there is a chance we can get some snow.

There shouldn’t be a single complaint on here. Whether we get flurries or a dusting or an inch or two it doesn’t matter. I am absolutely thrilled it’s going to be call the next week and previously thought. If anybody’s complaining about Christmas week go back to Christmas eve/Christmas Day 2015 when it was 72° with a dewpoint of 66 where I was living in the Bronx at the time. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day 2015 I wore short sleeves because I had to work both days. And I was sweating.

6 minutes ago, Andrew said:

We just had the coldest December 1 to December 15. Since 2005. We also have had a snowstorm that a large majority of the people on the board received. The big warm-up that was advertised for Christmas week is looking less and less likely and the fact there is a chance we can get some snow.

There shouldn’t be a single complaint on here. Whether we get flurries or a dusting or an inch or two it doesn’t matter. I am absolutely thrilled it’s going to be call the next week and previously thought. If anybody’s complaining about Christmas week go back to Christmas eve/Christmas Day 2015 when it was 72° with a dewpoint of 66 where I was living in the Bronx at the time. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day 2015 I wore short sleeves because I had to work both days. And I was sweating.

I think NYC for 12/1-12/15 is top 25 coldest for them.

I remember hosting Christmas in 2015 and I had to turn on the a/c in the house for a bit to cool it off.

We had 8-10” down here. Best storm this time period since 2003.

It is interesting how AI models are generally quite a bit colder than dynamical models later next week.

The models keep missing the Negative im the east

23 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

It is interesting how AI models are generally quite a bit colder than dynamical models later next week.

How do you feel about the ai models? Just another model, upgrade, downgrade, the same....?

4 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

How do you feel about the ai models? Just another model, upgrade, downgrade, the same....?

They do better in the raw skill scores, but I would imagine like most models, they will have their ups & downs for point locations.

These are good trends with the NAO over the last few GFS runs:

Here comes the trough split for the post Xmas pattern.