Need the next high

42 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Another trough missed in the LR

Don't look past d10 anyways

As long as you see this the above will keep happening

When this corrects look out

There may be a transient + PNA attempt

This is a timefrane that I would look out for

20 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

It happened in 2013 too. I want to check and see if it was also similar out here.

Out here was a cold and very dry winter, meh.

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Any precip maps? That looks cold of course, but dry with the main flow coming from the NW.

OR i am just blatantly wrong?

1 minute ago, jjvesnow said:

Any precip maps? That looks cold of course, but dry with the main flow coming from the NW.

OR i am just blatantly wrong?

Those years weren't dry.

- WPO - PNA - NAO could be a decent combo here w the SPV on our side of the pole

If you remember 2013-14 and the second half of 2014-15, you would have quick changes and you really couldn’t go beyond 72 hours to make an accurate forecast. There was snowfall that came to fruition 24 to 48 hours before the event and it wasn’t seen past there at all. A fast Pacific flow is going to do that you don’t know how strong an individual short wave is no matter what’s modeled.

Maybe Christmas Day is just cold and dry or maybe Christmas Day we get 12 to 18 inches area wide. Look at this past snowstorm we just had, perfect example of it.

If I were you guys I wouldn’t get either too excited or depressed at what the future shows you just have to wait and be patient and see what happens.

A negative pna would have a supply of shortwaves for us so it would be active. For it to be favorable for winter prospects around here we need a nice block. It’s happened in the past. Like Ben Solo said having the TPV on this side also helps a lot. Get that stuck under a block with a supply of cold air from a negative WPO and later down the line potentially a negative EPO we will have chances.

Here’s some analogs I’ve found mean neutral pna to negative pna. Good winters if there’s blocking. If we don’t get blocking it won’t work.

With the NAO going N models will of course struggle with the pattern. If its in place by the 23rd then the GFS maybe onto something. We have seen this before.

3 minutes ago, amugs said:

With the NAO going N models will of course struggle with the pattern. If its in place by the 23rd then the GFS maybe onto something. We have seen this before.

Christmas might be too soon.

I like the weekend b4 NY

IMO the storm track will be north of us around the 23rd to 25th time frame. After that I see it sagging south and maybe there’s an opportunity around the last few days of the year as the pna make get a brief positive phase and some action around the 50/50 region as the negative nao develops. Let’s see how this ridge trends. Pull it west some more then that’ll pull the trough west as well and might provide some opportunity to dig a shortwave into a favorable spot. Looks like it could be a similar feature to what we just had. Clipper dives down then transfers energy around the del Marva area. Not a classic miller B or anything. But with more blocking a potential then last week I’d just keep an eye on it for now

I’d watch how this trends for now. Pull the ridge west more and the trough will come west more and have a chance to dig a bit. If the blocking is real it’ll help.

December 28-30 or January 3-4 time frame to watch.

the nao was neg before the last snowfall...it was going pos during the storm...its forecast to go neg again...the ao was neg before the storm but was positive by the time the storm arrived...The AO forecast is going neg but some members of this plot go pos again...

SOme changes on the GFS

GFS is cold from Friday the 19th through at least CHristmas Eve

See that block forming and nosing into Greenland! That is moving up in time, and becoming more and more real.