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December map, observations, punch and pie

THE GREAT PB
THE GREAT PB
in Northeast Weather Discussion

Featured Replies

3 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Models don't read blocks well.

No changes

They also don't do well in fluctuating patterns.

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    38 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

    Awful runs on the cmc and gfs.

    CMC might be ok by the 29th, GFS looks like *****

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    Not gonna sugar coat it. All models just took a big dump. Geez.

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    • Facepalm 1
    34 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    Models don't read blocks well.

    No changes

    Absolutely

    Old GFS see ya - NEW GFS AI = come to poppa!

    1766512800-G6qQRTPcn98.png

    1766512800-XJzRmeG9nCk.png

    1766512800-NnKPciUCMBU.png

    1766491200-ad3yYS1H210.png

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    Always makes me laugh when models, no matter what the timestamp, show straight lines like below. The below zero line is 1000+ miles long.

    image.png

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    20 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

    Always makes me laugh when models, no matter what the timestamp, show straight lines like below. The below zero line is 1000+ miles long.

    image.png

    it's like there's a dam there

    14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

    it's like there's a dam there

    Just needs to burst and flow down, lol

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    Cant / will not fight the models.

    Either they sort themselves out or they don't .

    Strat splits

    p8

    -NAO

    -AO

    So I don't get it nor I am going to be bothered by it.

    I just got 10 inches of snow so its hard to be to upset.

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    26 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    Cant / will not fight the models.

    Either they sort themselves out or they don't .

    Strat splits

    p8

    -NAO

    -AO

    So I don't get it nor I am going to be bothered by it.

    I just got 10 inches of snow so its hard to be to upset.

    Fair. Who can really complain about the bitter cold and snow cover that most here have had already? We have not even hit the official start of winter yet.

    Only a very select few got to 10 though so let's not lose sight of that but that's the way the cookie crumbles.

    We know that you said the long range was going to be your focus and main concern and you were spot on with everything thus far so your perspective is totally understandable.

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    CPC January First Guess:

    Temperature

    CPC_First_Guess_January_Temperature.jpg

    Precipitation

    CPC_First_Guess_January_Precipitation.jpg

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    Cpc

    IMG_0183.jpg

    Upton has wind gust up to 55-60mph isn’t that warning criteria?

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    4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

    Upton has wind gust up to 55-60mph isn’t that warning criteria?

    58 mph gusts, but they don't have to issue if it is forecasted to be isolated. Considering that most storms this nascent season has overachieved model wind gusts and (very) strong winds just off the surface, feel a High Wind Warning is justified for coastal areas.

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    If this were summer, this would be a great pattern for MCS's come next week.

    By the way, why is there a limited time to edit posts?

    14 minutes ago, tmagan said:

    58 mph gusts, but they don't have to issue if it is forecasted to be isolated. Considering that most storms this nascent season has overachieved model wind gusts and (very) strong winds just off the surface, feel a High Wind Warning is justified for coastal areas.

    Gusted to 62 out here today, widespread 70+ gusts about 100 miles west of here.

    Most of the wind overachieved with this system so far.

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    3 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

    Gusted to 62 out here today, widespread 70+ gusts about 100 miles west of here.

    Most of the wind overachieved with this system so far.

    Yesterday was replete with 70 mph and 80 mph wind gusts in Montana and Wyoming.

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    17660997508388844826641746109526.png

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    17661048834427164282423196318859.png

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    • Snowman 1
    5 hours ago, tmagan said:

    CPC January First Guess:

    Temperature

    CPC_First_Guess_January_Temperature.jpg

    Precipitation

    CPC_First_Guess_January_Precipitation.jpg

    They'll bust pretty hard

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