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December map, observations, punch and pie

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep remember it well-3 or 4 cutters and the snow was wiped out. Pattern luckily reloaded early Feb in to April. Have to hope that happens here.

The point is that every winter, even the best ones, have a two week to one month period where it doesn't snow- or they start late or end early.

That's just how it is in this area.

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Very Heavy winds and heavy snow out there just beautiful. Near whiteout. Too bad it is short lived. Ground whitening up.

Big flakes here as well.

May be dealing with squalls for most of the day if you buy the HRRR.

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35 minutes ago, weatherhawk99 said:

A lot people on social media are saying that winter is over

No one is

I wouldn't be shocked if the models get colder towards the end of this month into January with the NAO and AO dropping especially for the Northeast. Yes the PNA will be negative. 

nao.gefs.sprd2.png

ao.gefs.sprd2.png

Nice

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3 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

I wouldn't be shocked if the models get colder towards the end of this month into January with the NAO and AO dropping especially for the Northeast. Yes the PNA will be negative. 

nao.gefs.sprd2.png

ao.gefs.sprd2.png

the long range has been doing terrible recently...

2 minutes ago, uncle w said:

the long range has been doing terrible recently...

Which is why we can't trust anything we see beyond day 7 to 10.

2 hours ago, Analog1888 said:

From obs, it looks like the wind comes after 10 am for you.

Wow perfect timing just had a gust to over 50 here came out of nowhere. Good call.

Special weather statement winds up to 70

@PaulTarsus @Rdd9108 Looking at PIT radar, it seems like the HRRR has the right idea on a more aggressive lake effect/instability enhanced snow squalls for the rest of the day. Starting to light up across eastern Ohio.

Farmingdale gusted to 61 earlier

Here is the most recent week 3/4 outlook - hasn't updated since Dec 12th.

WK34temp.gif

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2 minutes ago, Ben H said:

This is outdated lol

I was contrasting last yr vs this yr w my boy Willy.

I dont know why I dropped that in here

Let's see if we can get the 23rd to be a widespread light event for the board.

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NYC has 2.9 inches of snow for the season. If they can get 1/10th of an inch and bring it to 3 inches our chances for an above normal winter are 85%. If we failed to get that and remain at 2.9, our chances of a below normal winter will be at 85%.

Do I put a lot of stock into that? No. Everybody had a substantial storm on Sunday and in my book that is a great sign for the rest of the winter. I don’t care what Central Park didn’t get or got. This is already a much different winter than we have had I would’ve passed several winters and we have a long way to go yet.

46 mph at my Syosset station and 35 mph at my Muttontown station so far for highest gusts.  Lots of trees down on northern blvd & power pole partially snapped around street corner from my house. 

Went from 48° to 37° in about 20 minutes, now a mix of snow sleet and rain.

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