FYI

I think this period was seen pretty well.

Look out around Jan 5th in this pattern

AI ensembles are full blown winter

I know it's a crap model and still sucks for us but the 6z ICON moved like 150 miles SW with the snow, at 0z most snow was NE of Boston and now at 6z it's mostly SW of Boston.

Below normal temperatures look to continue through at least Christmas with some models now hinting at significantly colder weather than currently forecast for Friday. We do have a chance of some light snow, sleet and freezing rain arriving tomorrow morning. While amounts will be light the timing near rush hour could be a potential problem. We should dry out by tomorrow afternoon. Christmas Eve Day looks sunny. Plenty of uncertainty regarding both temperatures and precipitation by Christmas Day and Boxing Day.

23* and brrr this 1st morning of winter!

2 hours ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

FYI

I think this period was seen pretty well.

Look out around Jan 5th in this pattern

Here's what could become a MECS

A disappointing showing by the weeklies. December 16th run first, current run last. For the week of Dec 29th.

Reminds me of how the end of December 1995/2000 evolved.

Usually when we load up, the big one is around the bend. In this case, it'll be around January 4-5.

We will know fairly early on how a model will shift for the 26th, depending on what the model shows over west Canada 50-60 hours out.

11 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

We will know fairly early on how a model will shift for the 26th, depending on what the model shows over west Canada 50-60 hours out.

Keep us posted when you see the positive changes if you can, thanks!

It is a fairly subtle change on the ICON, but check out west Canada - slightly stronger ridge on 12z vs 6z. Would point to slightly more of a cold press for the 26th.

Another shift south on the ICON compared to 6z, which was a big shift south compared to 0z.

33 minutes ago, Chris L said:

Reminds me of how the end of December 1995/2000 evolved.

Usually when we load up, the big one is around the bend. In this case, it'll be around January 4-5.

Yes and don’t forget the end of December 2017 and we had the big snowstorm in Suffolk County on January 4.

Shift south

ICON more aggressive with Greenland blocking late-month as well:

NWS being cautious with Friday, which is fine, since the overnight runs were a big shift. But they will need to get the ball rolling on cooling Friday off if the afternoon runs continue this trend as a whole.

GFS looks very close to 6z so far. Tough to nitpick any changes so far through hour 48.

If anything, there is a touch more ridging over west Canada compared to 6z. Maintaining the changes from the overnight runs.

This separation over west Canada over the last 24 hours is the difference between a rainstorm & a snowstorm on the 26th.

All indicators are the GFS should be a tad south of 6z