2 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Look at the Canadian for Sun Mon now

We should have a good idea of what the Euro will do at around 1230

Colder than 6z aifs

AIFS a tad colder than 6z

I like the changes on the Euro over west Canada through 42 hours. Tad more ridging than 6z.

Not only is the temp profile better on the 12z AI but the snow is more widespread and heavier

Euro should be slightly south of 6z

This was from Mt. Holly's morning discussion - would imagine we see big changes with the afternoon update.

Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high.
Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or
southeastern Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the
Great Lakes and toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This
setup will likely bring precipitation to our area. The 00Z suite
of guidance had a significant change in course, indicating a
much stronger high and weaker, more suppressed low. This
solution would introduce potential for wintry precip for our
region and much colder temperatures, quite the change from
widespread 50s and rain from before. The shift in guidance was
consistent between different models. GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all
showing this much colder, wintry solution now, however given
this *very* recent change in course, have stuck with NBM for now
until there is more consistency in a colder, more wintry
solution. Precipitation is still likely, with 50-80% PoPs,
however we could be dealing with all rain, a significant wintry
system, or anything in between. Remain alert for changes to the
forecast for the Friday timeframe.

It does not seem like it is possible for the EPS to see troughs in the Northeast in the extended range with this pattern.

26 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

My Forcast now is snow Friday into Saturday temps in 20s

Eps slightly south of the op andcolder

What type of system is that? To me it looks like an extremely powerful warm front but then again there will be more snow to the West and Southwest.

1 minute ago, Andrew said:

What type of system is that? To me it looks like an extremely powerful warm front but then again there will be more snow to the West and Southwest.

It looks like an overrunner that's slowly getting quashed to a favorable latitude

Please correct me if I am wrong

EPS trend

3 minutes ago, Andrew said:

What type of system is that? To me it looks like an extremely powerful warm front but then again there will be more snow to the West and Southwest.

It looks like overrunning?

Jan 5 KU

TWC already has 4-6 inches for NYC for Friday lol