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December map, observations, punch and pie

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For shit and giggles image.png

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Just now, chief7 said:

CFS hr 490

image.png

Merry Christmas all.

It is surprising to not see a massive ridge over the east for once in the day 11-15 on the EPS.

eps_z500a_namer_61 (3).png

  • Author
11 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

Merry Christmas all.

It is surprising to not see a massive ridge over the east for once in the day 11-15 on the EPS.

eps_z500a_namer_61 (3).png

I obviously believe we could snow before the 10th

-AO - NAO - WPO and by day 15 a + PNA develops

That a recipe during peak climo for some good stuff.

January has a chance to be better than December

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-wpo-box-6620800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-6620800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-nao-box-6620800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-ao-box-6620800.png

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17666673726598451376812729055354.png

26 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

I obviously believe we could snow before the 10th

-AO - NAO - WPO and by day 15 a + PNA develops

That a recipe during peak climo for some good stuff.

January has a chance to be better than December

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-wpo-box-6620800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-6620800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-nao-box-6620800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-ao-box-6620800.png

We've seen a tendency toward higher than normal pressure in early Jan near the Himalayas (+MT), which allows the Pacific jet to protract enough to where that may allow for more of a +PNA by the 2nd week of Jan. Would be a significant change from the December pattern in that sense.

8 hours ago, Analog1888 said:

GFS may be trying to cook something up Jan 6-7...

Yes sir.

49 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

17666673726598451376812729055354.png

Just spins in the COD? Not much of a factor?

1 minute ago, BMC10 said:

Just spins in the COD? Not much of a factor?

It hasn't really been much of a factor all season.

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10 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

Just spins in the COD? Not much of a factor?

Yeh it will have some effect but if the - WPO / - NAO doesn't disintegrate then those anomalies will overpower a weak null phase

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10 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

It hasn't really been much of a factor all season.

Greg, the monster ridge in the center of the Country is a direct result of the convection that fired over the Indian Ocean

You've been in a weak p8 but it wasn't clean because a wave went through 5 and 6 .

Trust me the tropics are always heard from

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1 hour ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Greg, the monster ridge in the center of the Country is a direct result of the convection that fired over the Indian Ocean

You've been in a weak p8 but it wasn't clean because a wave went through 5 and 6 .

Trust me the tropics are always heard from

But that's what I mean. P8 hasn't acted like p8. P6 isn't going to act like p6. It may as well not exist.

GFS coming in hot with the New Years arctic wave!

GFS coming in hot with the New Years arctic wave!

  • Author

The deeper this dives the further S it drags the barroclinic zone for the stuff behind

17666797706372023718561385858563.png

there has not been many Decembers with two significant snowfalls...this year we have one...2.9" in Central Park...5.5" imby on Staten Island...we could get another 4" + tomorrow...

1993-94 had a snowfall on Dec 12th...2.9" in Central Park...4" in southern Brooklyn...another 4" near the end of the month...2002 and 2003 had two...1948 had three...

  • Author

12z AI has several chances of snow during the 1st 10 days of Jan

56 minutes ago, uncle w said:

there has not been many Decembers with two significant snowfalls...this year we have one...2.9" in Central Park...5.5" imby on Staten Island...we could get another 4" + tomorrow...

1993-94 had a snowfall on Dec 12th...2.9" in Central Park...4" in southern Brooklyn...another 4" near the end of the month...2002 and 2003 had two...1948 had three...

1995-96 had 3 inches at the end of Nov, 1-2" on Dec 9, a couple slop events the next week and then like 8-10" on 12/19-20

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ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-7744000.pngecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp-7722400.png

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