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December map, observations, punch and pie

THE GREAT PB
THE GREAT PB
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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    A reasonable lag between +MT & the downstream effects on the pattern, based on the late-December 2022 event, is close to 7-10 days or so. The timing of this shift on the EPS looks very reasonable, into the 2nd week of January.

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    BTW, it is a mini torch today, 50

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    • My God 1

    W HEM forcing that should kick the NAO/AO/EPO all N and pump tye PNA Ridge. IF this wave verifies then we have good possibilities of cold n snow from mid Januray through its end.

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    Week 2 in Jan looks gr8

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    Merry Christmas to all.

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    Current STRAT

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    ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7290400.pngecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7722400.pngecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7981600.pngecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-namer-t2m_f_anom_5day-7549600.pngecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-namer-t2m_f_anom_5day-7808800.png

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    Week 2

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    How is the 1st looking? I figured that was the next period to watch from a pattern standpoint.

    I haven’t really looked at models since last night when I wrote tomorrows storm off for me. (Hope you guys up north get crushed tho!!!)

    12 minutes ago, Mjh609 said:

    How is the 1st looking? I figured that was the next period to watch from a pattern standpoint.

    I haven’t really looked at models since last night when I wrote tomorrows storm off for me. (Hope you guys up north get crushed tho!!!)

    The first is an Arctic wave, enhanced by LES. Chances are much higher in upstate NY than SNJ.

    4 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

    The first is an Arctic wave, enhanced by LES. Chances are much higher in upstate NY than SNJ.

    As I would expect. I’ve been in a literal snow hole for years. I got 7+ last storm. If I can squeak 2.6ish tomorrow it’s a 10” December. Won’t hear me complain.

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    Central Park has had only two days with a maximum temperature of at least fifty degrees this month. If there are no more fifty degree days the rest of the month, it would be the fewest days with this maximum since 2010. Basically since then, Central Park has been guaranteed at least a week of said temperatures.

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    WOOF

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    • Snowman 1
    • Author

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    36 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    WOOF

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    WOOF

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    Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

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    GFS has it too, the TT algorithm shows it as rain, but that's BS.

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    33 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

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    What happened to January 5th?

    34 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

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    Create an account or sign in to comment

    https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/topic/8399-december-map-observations-punch-and-pie/
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