My snow will b gone tomorrow

Dec is over

Focused on January

25 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Focused on January

Chris L already killed it bro

With our 0.8" of sleet and ice yesterday our December snow total is now at 11.2" this is the 5th most in December in the 23 years I have been at this location. Temperatures today will struggle to get to freezing so be careful out there. We warm to near 40 degrees tomorrow and then turn unseasonably warm on Monday with highs into the middle 50's. To go along with the warmer temperatures rain will arrive tomorrow night and last into Monday. The cold returns by Monday night and we will end the days leading into the New Year with well below normal temperatures.

The GFS is trying to develop the SW for Friday

3 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

The GFS is trying to develop the SW for Friday

Nice clipper for WPa on Thursday

Just now, PaulTarsus said:

Nice clipper for WPa on Thursday

Another 4 + for you guys

Yes. Some nice potential here and it’s not like it’s crazy far out either

Good things on the way- Keep Chris L out!!!!

Need the 50/50 to hold

Don’t love the low up by Buffalo, but

2 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Don’t love the low up by Buffalo, but

The reason you can snow with that is that it's not a traditional cutter. It's more of a clipper or a hybrid type system, so it's not trucking in loads of warm air.

A low like that that cuts straight up from the Gulf would be bringing in very warm air with it. It's also not a very strong low, so your winds are not really strong, which means the advection is not super strong.

However, look where the 540 line is- way up by Poughkeepsie. That screams sleet.

with the block and 5050 which are real you will see this come under and redevelop

3 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

with the block and 5050 which are real you will see this come under and redevelop

Yeah, and maybe another front end thump setup worst case.

CMC right there too

Last storm it was forecasted 2-3 . I think I got almost 6 .

This one was 6-9. Probably got 3?

10 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

CMC right there too

The models are trying to cut these

Its bullsht.

Let it settle down

33 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

The GFS is trying to develop the SW for Friday

love it, any snow is good snow, will be happy for an inch or so

2 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

The models are trying to cut these

Its bullsht.

Let it settle down

Yeah not worried about that right now. Just looking at the overall evolution.

There is potential there and it’s 7/8 days out.

I tried to post this in the storm thread, but it was locked before I finished typing.

Moderators and those with special powers can move it to that thread, but I wanted to make sure I got this out there.

OK the last page should probably be moved to the other thread.

I was confused when I started to do this and saw that the pattern disco was going on in here.

Anyway, all the major NWS offices have now issued their PNSs. For verification purposes, I only use NWS data. I might take liberty to throw out an outlier once in a while, if the reading just makes no sense.

But as far as using only NWS data, there are so many data sources out there. I don't want to use "My uncle Bob said" etc. This way we have one source and we use it across all data. So let's see... here was my forecast for the different "zones". I'll post my forecast and then an average of all the PNS data for that area.

I forecasted 6-10" NY Metro, with closer to 6 for western sections and closer to 10 for Long Island (so if you want, we can call it 6-8 west and 8-10 east)

Within the OKX zones, almost all the NJ stations (NE NJ) that qualify as NJ metro had 3 or 4" of snow, with the exception of far W Union County, which was closer to 2".

Middlesex County, which I very much consider to be part of NY Metro had less than 2 inches, with closer to 2 north and east, and closer to 0 south and west.

I didn't see any reports from Nassau County, but based on NYC proper reports and Suffolk reports, we can assume all of LI had 4-8".

Just about all of NYC had around 4", with a little 5" area in SE Queens.

Lastly, in Fairfield, which is part of NY metro, and I assumed around 8" would fall, the verification was 5-9".

I did pretty well for the eastern half of LI and Fairfield County, but stunk it up for the rest of the NY Metro.

Grade: C-/D+

I forecasted 4-7" for NW NJ. Most NW NJ (Morris, Sussex, Warren) stations verified 2-4, with the exception of SW Warren, where 1" was more common.

Again, not a great forecast, but I did hit low end verification in some areas, so D+

In Central NJ, I forecasted 2-4/3-6 with 2 further south and 6 further north. The further north places, in Somerset and Hunterdon, verified 1-3", with the 3 being in Eastern Somerset mostly.

Some places in southern Monmouth were near 0. This was an F.

I did not forecast for SNJ or PA, because I thought amounts did not justify a forecast, so no score.

For CT, I forecasted a general 5-9", with some 10" amounts possible in areas like Waterbury and Danbury.

In CT (outside of Fairfield County), amounts varied from 8-11" just north of I 84 through the hilly parts of Southern Litchfield and Northern New Haven counties, down to 3-5" in far NE CT.

This was actually a solid forecast. I'll give myself an A- for CT, since far NE CT was lower than I forecasted.

Lastly, in upstate New York, I forecasted 6-10/8-12 in the LOHud, more north and higher elevations, and 10-14 in the Catskills. I also forecasted 5-9 in the Albany area, and 3-5 in the Saratoga region.

The Lower Hudson Valley verified 4-10", with the amounts distributed about as I thought, so I was a tad high but overall good forecast.

The Catskills verified exactly 10-14", so that was a perfect forecast.

The Capital District reported 4-9", so also basically a perfect forecast.

The Saratoga region reported 4-6", so that's really close to 3-5".

Westchester County was considered part of NY Metro.

Overall, for the upstate New York portion of the forecast, I can give myself an A!

So overall: I think I get a C or a C+, with my grade going from an A up north to an F in the south.

Now, considering that most of this forum lives in the NY metro, if you want to weight the NYC metro area harder, my grade is closer to a C-, but that's up to you.

Apologies to @jjvesnow and anyone else I got into it with if I was wrong, @sundog included. However, for me, it's all sport and part of the game, as long as nothing too personal is said.

This is looking to be one of the coldest Januarys in the east we have seen in a very long time.