Long duration 

Cmc has the storm but its warmer 

Gefs colder moving forward

0Z GFS, ECMWF gets Central Park close to a record high of 67 on Wednesday.

1st 10 days of December 

 

Thats not AN on any ensemble.

 

Really poor analysis coming out of places 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Awful model 

Yep models are now losing this wave

4 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

Yep models are now losing this wave

 

Like I said last week don't look at waves outside 5 days.

The models can't see a SW 10 days out.

 

Dec 3 - Dec 5 are SWs that may or may not exist 

 

Just focus on the pattern and the movement in the Tropics 

GFS based guidance caved to the colder Euro with the morning runs:

 

N WPO/EPO +TNH FTFW!!

 

TO THIS:

22 minutes ago, amugs said:

N WPO/EPO +TNH FTFW!!

 

TO THIS:

Crazy, cut temps in half. 

24 minutes ago, amugs said:

N WPO/EPO +TNH FTFW!!

 

TO THIS:

All of you guys have been doing this for years- it’s a ***** model - we’re comparing fantasy to fantasy here..

 

im not sure why anyone buys into any of this crap… it’s just model stupidity.  

1 minute ago, Jefflaw77 said:

All of you guys have been doing this for years- it’s a ***** model - we’re comparing fantasy to fantasy here..

 

im not sure why anyone buys into any of this crap… it’s just model stupidity.  

Jeff pattern recognition is what we are discussing. How they are having issues decipheringthe N EPO, SSW ruined winter. This isn't fanatsy land with the incoming cold brother. Take it up with Mother Nature, cold is pressing and the model a re picking it up finally.

 

2 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said:

All of you guys have been doing this for years- it’s a ***** model - we’re comparing fantasy to fantasy here..

 

im not sure why anyone buys into any of this crap… it’s just model stupidity.  

I try to balance the models with analogs...I'm not expecting anything right now...hopefully if we get into faze 8 of the mjo things get interesting...the timing of the mjo does look good if the forecast for it is correct...

6 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said:

All of you guys have been doing this for years- it’s a ***** model - we’re comparing fantasy to fantasy here..

 

im not sure why anyone buys into any of this crap… it’s just model stupidity.  

 

Its more than that. We've been telling people that SE ridge was BS as they posted away about how warm it was going to get.

 

When we bust too cold we own it - these guys can't hide behind, well its the models fault 

9 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

I think the big question after that is when/where it goes into the COD.  If it goes into the COD in 1 or 2 or 1/2 borderline, we may have  a good pattern for a long time.

 

This wave will kill the NINA so we may end up w a La Nada come late Jan into Feb where I think a 2nd stronger SSW can occur 

 

I do expect a break in between obviously 

I just want four events, all at least 4 inches, two of which being at least 6 inches. It's a really low bar since it still yields a below normal snow season. So I don't think I am asking for too much. 

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I just want four events, all at least 4 inches, two of which being at least 6 inches. It's a really low bar since it still yields a below normal snow season. So I don't think I am asking for too much. 

Welcome back!  Yes, but I bet NYC would measure 3.9" somehow just so Bluewave can say no 4" events, haha.