9 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Talk about waiting until your nose is pressed up against the glass

Wonder what precip forecast is for the month with that cold. Regardless, think we’ll have a nice start to winter this December.

Final December outlook:
Entire country AOB normal temps

Coldest Areas: NNE, Northern Plains

Warmest Areas: Northern Rockies (maybe +0.5)

Northeast US: -1 in DC to -5 in Caribou

Midwest: -1 to -3

Precipitation: avg to a bit drier than avg for most.

But relatively close to avg,
Driest areas: W coast, GOA coast

Wettest areas: Ozarks

Just now, Analog1888 said:

Final December outlook:
Entire country AOB normal temps

Coldest Areas: NNE, Northern Plains

Warmest Areas: Northern Rockies (maybe +0.5)

Northeast US: -1 in DC to -5 in Caribou

Midwest: -1 to -3

Precipitation: avg to a bit drier than avg for most.

But relatively close to avg,
Driest areas: W coast, GOA coast

Wettest areas: Ozarks

Looks borderline AN here TBH

16 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Wonder what precip forecast is for the month with that cold. Regardless, think we’ll have a nice start to winter this December.

5 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Looks borderline AN here TBH

Based on what, seriously? I actually think my forecast, if it busts, will bust too warm.

I am being EXTREMELY conservative. OP models don't show above normal temps here until day 11, and it's been stuck on day 11 for about five days.

So unless you seriously have some secret data that shows warmth here, I wouldn't be posting that.

for the NYC area Dec1958 had 10 consecutive days with a max below freezing from the 7th-16...it also got 3" of snow during that period...1962 had seven straight from the 10th-16th...both winters ended up cold and dry...some coldest snowiest periods from the 11th-25th are from 1945, 1960, 1963, 1995...

The map below shows a MECS possibility.

This is where a large snowstorm could be hiding.

22 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

The map below shows a MECS possibility.

This is where a large snowstorm could be hiding.

33 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Based on what, seriously? I actually think my forecast, if it busts, will bust too warm.

I am being EXTREMELY conservative. OP models don't show above normal temps here until day 11, and it's been stuck on day 11 for about five days.

So unless you seriously have some secret data that shows warmth here, I wouldn't be posting that.

See quoted above

24 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

The map below shows a MECS possibility.

This is where a large snowstorm could be hiding.

Yesterday the models were showing some amplification in the December 10-12 timeframe.

9 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

See quoted above

Don't you know how to recognize patterns at all? I mean an eight year old could track the forecast and tell that nearly every day is busting low.
We don't live at 18,000 feet. There are three Arctic shots coming down in the next three days and none of them were forecast ten days out.

You really think we're going to be above normal?

I mean, I do give you credit from adjusting from an "all out torch December" to "just above normal" but you remind me of when NWS adjusts in the middle of a bust and it's way too little and way too late.

Ongoing flurries here. It's been flurrying for twelve hours now, and the temp is 16 degrees.

37 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Don't you know how to recognize patterns at all? I mean an eight year old could track the forecast and tell that nearly every day is busting low.
We don't live at 18,000 feet. There are three Arctic shots coming down in the next three days and none of them were forecast ten days out.

You really think we're going to be above normal?

I mean, I do give you credit from adjusting from an "all out torch December" to "just above normal" but you remind me of when NWS adjusts in the middle of a bust and it's way too little and way too late.

Ongoing flurries here. It's been flurrying for twelve hours now, and the temp is 16 degrees.

EPO needs to go negative

Just now, Snowlover76 said:

EPO needs to go negative

No, actually in Nebraska you want a negative WPO, and that is very negative.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

1 hour ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

High sliding out into Atlantic though out ahead of it on the 18z Euro.

4 minutes ago, chicubs said:

High sliding out into Atlantic though out ahead of it on the 18z Euro.

6 minutes ago, chicubs said:

High sliding out into Atlantic though out ahead of it on the 18z Euro.

With the high latitude blocking and 50/50 if it rains I’ll give up.

PV remains below average strength.

Icon

Horrible runs last night, pray the ICON is right, other models don't show much for next weekend