1 hour ago, VIRGAMAN said:

Horrible runs last night, pray the ICON is right, other models don't show much for next weekend

GFS has caved for all intents & purposes for the 2nd week pattern.

The reason for why the GFS/GEFS have trended much colder for the 2nd week of December has to do with the trend over the Pacific in the medium term.

Major changes toward more of a trough across the Aleutians, which allows for a more favorable configuration for northern stream energy to move more toward the east, as opposed to digging more across the west, like the GFS/GEFS was originally showing.

We have also trended toward stronger Arctic/Atlantic blocking over the last day or so on the GEFS, which also helps to move this energy eastward across CONUS.

Some similarities to the 2010 pattern on the AIFS-ENS as we approach mid-month.

Another view of the GEFS cave:

SSN Thursday

19 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

Some similarities to the 2010 pattern on the AIFS-ENS as we approach mid-month.

Great analog

If the block is legit this time we will snow between the 10th - 20th.

I posted yesterday my belief is thats where a bigger snowstorm would be brewing

We open like this

40 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

We open like this

Unfortunately doesn’t matter much when most get rain lol. That just hurts.

1 minute ago, BMC10 said:

Unfortunately doesn’t matter much when most get rain lol. That just hurts.

The only chance you have to snow is in a BN regime

I really stayed away from snow calls except the one I think is coming between the 10th and 20th

13 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

The only chance you have to snow is in a BN regime

I really stayed away from snow calls except the one I think is coming between the 10th and 20th

It does appear like that block is going to try and force some amplification. We shall see if it buckles the flow.

22 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

The only chance you have to snow is in a BN regime

I really stayed away from snow calls except the one I think is coming between the 10th and 20th

That's what I say too. Best odds for snow is when it's cold.

Waiting for a two day below normal window in a sea of above normal to get a snowstorm almost never works.

November finished as our 3rd below average temperature month over the last 4 months. December looks to also be getting off to a well below normal temperature start. Sunny today but with temperatures almost 10 degrees below normal for highs. Clouds roll in tonight with some snow arriving toward dawn. The Winter Weather Advisory starts at 4am for Western Chester County. Any snow to start should quickly change to sleet and then rain with little if any accumulation. That said with the timing near rush area it may be a bit slippery for the morning commute. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the mid 30's well below average but fall even further below average by Friday as the coldest air of the season arrives. Temperatures on Friday will stay in the 20's. Another wintry event is possible by Friday night into Saturday.

30 minutes ago, Sundog said:

That's what I say too. Best odds for snow is when it's cold.

Waiting for a two day below normal window in a sea of above normal to get a snowstorm almost never works.

We are 3 to 4 degrees warmer in Dec since 1970 so when looking at anomalies in early to mid December you really want to see several days of BNs

Thats why I focus on 500s and mid range stuff.

If youre N youre never snowing. I always say if you build the cold you may get your chance to snow

Remember last year’s faze 8 and -5sd ao in February?…one of the few times it did not work out for us… this time faze 8 looks stronger and the ao block looks weaker than last year…

6 minutes ago, uncle w said:

Remember last year’s faze 8 and -5sd ao in February?…one of the few times it did not work out for us… this time faze 8 looks stronger and the ao block looks weaker than last year…

Last year it may have actually been too much of a good thing,

7 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Last year it may have actually been too much of a good thing,

The weather will do what it wants to do

1 hour ago, BMC10 said:

Unfortunately doesn’t matter much when most get rain lol. That just hurts.

Just a bit early especially on the coast....I do like that we seem to be in stormy pattern