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December map, observations, punch and pie

THE GREAT PB
THE GREAT PB
in Northeast Weather Discussion

Featured Replies

Just now, Sundog said:

I just want four events, all at least 4 inches, two of which being at least 6 inches. It's a really low bar since it still yields a below normal snow season. So I don't think I am asking for too much. 

the only season with four 4" or more snowfalls that ended up below average was in 1984-85...

season............snowfalls...4"+...................................Snowfall...Total 4+
1892-93.........4.0...6.0...5.0...9.1...6.0.......................49.7........5......
1893-94.........6.5...7.0...4.0...8.0...............................36.1........4......
1895-96.......10.0...5.0 12.0...4.5...............................46.3........4......
1896-97.........5.0...7.0...6.0 10.0...8.5.......................43.6........5......
1898-99.......10.0...6.0...4.0...6.5 16.0.......................55.9........5......
1902-03.........6.3...6.5...4.0...9.5...............................28.7........4......
1904-05.........4.0...6.0...7.0 10.0...............................48.1........4......
1906-07.........6.0...5.0 11.0...6.0...4.0...6.0...5.0.......53.2........7......
1915-16.........6.0...6.0...5.3...7.6...4.0...5.0................50.7........6......
1916-17.......12.7....4.3...6.7...6.5................................50.7........4......
1922-23.........4.0...9.0...7.8...6.3...7.3.......................60.4........5......
1933-34.......11.2...9.8....7.6...9.3...5.6.......................52.0........5......
1938-39.........8.8...4.0...8.8...4.5..............................37.3........4......
1948-49.........5.3 16.0...4.5...4.6...9.4......................46.6........5......
1957-58.........8.0...4.5...4.5...7.9...4.1...11.8...............44.7........6......
1963-64.........6.6 12.5...6.8...4.9..............................44.7........4......
1977-78.......13.6 17.7...4.2...5.0................................50.7........4......
1984-85.........4.8...4.1...4.3...5.7...............................24.1........4.....
1993-94.........4.0...4.5...9.0 12.8...5.0......................53.4........5......
1995-96.........7.7 20.2...7.5 10.7...4.5...4.5...4.1........75.6........7......
2002-03.........6.0...5.0...5.3 19.8...4.0.....................49.8........5......
2003-04.......14.0...5.8...5.7 10.3..............................42.6........4......
2004-05.......13.8...5.0...6.0...7.7...............................41.0........4......
2009-10.......10.9 10.0...5.0 20.9...............................51.4........4......
2010-11.......20.0...9.1...4.2 19.0................................60.9........4......

2013-14.........5.0...6.4 11.5...8.0...4.0 12.5................57.4........6......

2014-15.........9.8...5.3...4.0...4.8...7.5...4.5...............50.3........6.....

2017-18.........4.6...9.8...4.4...8.4...5.5......................40.9........5........

2020-21.......10.5 17.4"...4.5"...4.4"...........................38.2........4 .....

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    2 minutes ago, uncle w said:

    the only season with four 4" or more snowfalls that ended up below average was in 1984-85...

    season............snowfalls...4"+...................................Snowfall...Total 4+
    1892-93.........4.0...6.0...5.0...9.1...6.0.......................49.7........5......
    1893-94.........6.5...7.0...4.0...8.0...............................36.1........4......
    1895-96.......10.0...5.0 12.0...4.5...............................46.3........4......
    1896-97.........5.0...7.0...6.0 10.0...8.5.......................43.6........5......
    1898-99.......10.0...6.0...4.0...6.5 16.0.......................55.9........5......
    1902-03.........6.3...6.5...4.0...9.5...............................28.7........4......
    1904-05.........4.0...6.0...7.0 10.0...............................48.1........4......
    1906-07.........6.0...5.0 11.0...6.0...4.0...6.0...5.0.......53.2........7......
    1915-16.........6.0...6.0...5.3...7.6...4.0...5.0................50.7........6......
    1916-17.......12.7....4.3...6.7...6.5................................50.7........4......
    1922-23.........4.0...9.0...7.8...6.3...7.3.......................60.4........5......
    1933-34.......11.2...9.8....7.6...9.3...5.6.......................52.0........5......
    1938-39.........8.8...4.0...8.8...4.5..............................37.3........4......
    1948-49.........5.3 16.0...4.5...4.6...9.4......................46.6........5......
    1957-58.........8.0...4.5...4.5...7.9...4.1...11.8...............44.7........6......
    1963-64.........6.6 12.5...6.8...4.9..............................44.7........4......
    1977-78.......13.6 17.7...4.2...5.0................................50.7........4......
    1984-85.........4.8...4.1...4.3...5.7...............................24.1........4.....
    1993-94.........4.0...4.5...9.0 12.8...5.0......................53.4........5......
    1995-96.........7.7 20.2...7.5 10.7...4.5...4.5...4.1........75.6........7......
    2002-03.........6.0...5.0...5.3 19.8...4.0.....................49.8........5......
    2003-04.......14.0...5.8...5.7 10.3..............................42.6........4......
    2004-05.......13.8...5.0...6.0...7.7...............................41.0........4......
    2009-10.......10.9 10.0...5.0 20.9...............................51.4........4......
    2010-11.......20.0...9.1...4.2 19.0................................60.9........4......

    2013-14.........5.0...6.4 11.5...8.0...4.0 12.5................57.4........6......

    2014-15.........9.8...5.3...4.0...4.8...7.5...4.5...............50.3........6.....

    2017-18.........4.6...9.8...4.4...8.4...5.5......................40.9........5........

    2020-21.......10.5 17.4"...4.5"...4.4"...........................38.2........4 .....

     

    Yea the thing is when you can score at least four <4 inch events, that usually means your winter is doing well overall and therefore you have even more events that are smaller and a couple that are bigger. 

    • Like 2
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    2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

     

     

    Yea the thing is when you can score at least four <4 inch events, that usually means your winter is doing well overall and therefore you have even more events that are smaller and a couple that are bigger. 

     

    WELCOME BACK !!!!!!!

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    1 minute ago, Sundog said:

     

     

    Yea the thing is when you can score at least four <4 inch events, that usually means your winter is doing well overall and therefore you have even more events that are smaller and a couple that are bigger. 

    most of the time when NYC gets a 4" snowfall or greater in December the winter is good to great...there have been great winters without a 4" snowfall in Dec but those are rare...1977-78 and 2014-15 are examples...

    • Like 3
    6 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

     

    WELCOME BACK !!!!!!!

     

    What's up man. Hopefully we can track something good this year

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    Just now, Sundog said:

     

    What's up man. Hopefully we can track something good this year

     

    I hope so.  Its been a few lean years for sure.

     

    I would just like a cold Christmas week with snow OTG.

     

    Happy youre back brother 

     

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    Free @Ag3

    • Like 1
    7 minutes ago, uncle w said:

    most of the time when NYC gets a 4" snowfall or greater in December the winter is good to great...there have been great winters without a 4" snowfall in Dec but those are rare...1977-78 and 2014-15 are examples...

     

    I went to Lake Placid December 2014 and they told me we couldn't do dog sledding on Mirror Lake because the ice was too thin since it had been so warm (for them.) Fast forward two months and it was one of the coldest winters we had in a very long time. 

    • Like 2
    2 hours ago, Jefflaw77 said:

    All of you guys have been doing this for years- it’s a ***** model - we’re comparing fantasy to fantasy here..

     

    im not sure why anyone buys into any of this crap… it’s just model stupidity.  

    Lol dude they are discussing the pattern recognition within the op models as the MJO progresses into a favorable phase in December which has been discussed here for weeks well ahead of now ad nauseum.

     

    The latest map is not fantasy land time frames. It is 1 week out now so MJO phase changes and how it impacts our sensible weather at this stage start to shine through. It is valid to show the comparison as we get into better range of when the MJO starts to progress into a favorable phase.

    • Like 2

    Progressing similarly to 2000-2001 so far:

     

    10mb-zonal-wind-at-65n.thumb.png.4c62d8dece8dd6a73c6a4c565e7da406.png

    • Like 7
    8 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    Progressing similarly to 2000-2001 so far:

     

    10mb-zonal-wind-at-65n.thumb.png.4c62d8dece8dd6a73c6a4c565e7da406.png

    There is mention of that analog again! I have been on board with that analog since we started seeing serious posts about this upcoming winter's potential. We shall see.

    • Like 6
    2 minutes ago, dbc said:

    There is mention of that analog again! I have been on board with that analog since we started seeing serious posts about this upcoming winter's potential.

    very nice season with a great December.

    • Like 2
    13 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

    very nice season with a great December.

    1st winter I tracked on a weather message board as everyone can see in my Signature. Started with The Weather Channel Winter 2000-01 boards and then over to WWBB for what was a decent February 2001 too. Plenty of folks still here were on WWBB too 25 years later! Similar to many others, some still here, it is the 25th anniversary of my participation on weather message boards if you will.

     

    Bring it! Would love a winter similar to that.

    17 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    Progressing similarly to 2000-2001 so far:

     

    10mb-zonal-wind-at-65n.thumb.png.4c62d8dece8dd6a73c6a4c565e7da406.png

     

    Image

    • Like 3
    • My God 1
    10 minutes ago, dbc said:

    There is mention of that analog again! I have been on board with that analog since we started seeing serious posts about this upcoming winter's potential. We shall see.

    its the coldest December since 1989...the pattern was great most of the month, but it produced on the 30th...similar to 2010...

    • Like 2
    13 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

    very nice season with a great December.

    then came March 2001...a bust I was ready for...

    • Haha 1

    The only time we saw +AO/-PNA/+NAO with a high amplitude phase 8 MJO was December 1991 - but this is still not a good analog, since December 1991 featured a strong El Niño.

     

    That is also the pattern response you would expect to see with phase 8 + El Niño + December.

     

    The lack of historical La Niña analogs for such a pattern given that MJO state does arguably raise some caution flags for mid-month.

     

    nino_8_dic_mid.thumb.png.3866aa94d94aa14ed73699860767f03a.png

    • Like 4
    3 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    The only time we saw +AO/-PNA/+NAO with a high amplitude phase 8 MJO was December 1991 - but this is still not a good analog, since December 1991 featured a strong El Niño.

     

    That is also the pattern response you would expect to see with phase 8 + El Niño + December.

     

    The lack of historical La Niña analogs for such a pattern given that MJO state does raise some caution flags for mid-month.

     

    nino_8_dic_mid.thumb.png.3866aa94d94aa14ed73699860767f03a.png

    Good stuff... Keep it coming!

    • Like 2

    From Mark Margarave.

    This is an amazing chart.  Portends for what is to come

     

    image.jpeg

    •
    • Thanks 1

    Now we should free Colin next

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