15 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Don't beieve anything Forky says either.
He actually believes global warming has become so strong that it can't snow here any more.

Never mind that we are going to threaten record lows from 1902 out here tonight!

He's a troll for sure-but that post at least made some sense.

since 1996 (30 winters) NYC had 15 storms with at least one storm 10" or more...three years had two....since 1869 (156 years) NYC has 56 10" storms...41 came before 1996 (126 years)...we went from an average of one every three years to one every 2 years...

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

He's a troll for sure-but that post at least made some sense.

It's very rare that everything will be perfect, even in good years.

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

He's a troll for sure-but that post at least made some sense.

Forky is pretty smart and occasionally he hits a HR.

1 hour ago, Keith P.A said:

Lol Bluewave and Snow19 teaming up again..It's like hearing Christmas music on the radio, every year at this time..Today it's the pacific jet runing winter.

Bluewave spent over 2000 dollars on his cuck chair setup.

Straight facts yo.

55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's what spoiled us.  I think some (I'm a bit guilty) just expected big winters....   Once in a 100 year run 2009-2018

You can add 02-03,03-04,04-05,05-06 to your list and i would not kick 00-01 out of bed

35 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Hope this happens for you and the southern crowd

December 2010 we got our first storm on Boxing Day and that epic. We had the Pacific jet bring storm after the storm across the country.

December 2020 I don’t know if people remember but for days before the storm mid month people were saying we weren’t going to get anything the ridge was flat in the Pacific jet and the southeast Ridge and the Honduras Ridge and the heat Rich and you use Pakistan was coming yada yada yada and lo and behold we had the significant storm I believe New York City got close to a foot and out here I ended up with 7 1/2 inches.

Last year we weren’t supposed to get anything and we got the storm before Christmas although it wasn’t a big one it still counts.

According to them this was supposed to be the warmest autumn on record with October and November being blow torches.

Snow shower again here. IT really seems to want to snow here this year.

Just now, Andrew said:

December 2010 we got our first storm on Boxing Day and that epic. We had the Pacific jet bring storm after the storm across the country.

December 2020 I don’t know if people remember but for days before the storm mid month people were saying we weren’t going to get anything the ridge was flat in the Pacific jet and the southeast Ridge and the Honduras Ridge and the heat Rich and you use Pakistan was coming yada yada yada and lo and behold we had the significant storm I believe New York City got close to a foot and out here I ended up with 7 1/2 inches.

Last year we weren’t supposed to get anything and we got the storm before Christmas although it wasn’t a big one it still counts.

According to them this was supposed to be the warmest autumn on record with October and November being blow torches.

Don't forget most of our weather comes from the Pacific and NW Canada in the winter and that's notoriously the worst modeled part of the world.

I have a little conundrum for the Saturday night forecast in my area.

The GFS is basically alone with this forecast, but it basically shows advisory level snows here.

Now normally if the GFS is alone, I automatically dismiss it.
But this is the GFS' kill zone. I generally find the GFS between 60-84 hours to be its most accurate range.

So this is a difficult one.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2025120318/gfs_asnow_us_16.png

9 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

I have a little conundrum for the Saturday night forecast in my area.

The GFS is basically alone with this forecast, but it basically shows advisory level snows here.

Now normally if the GFS is alone, I automatically dismiss it.
But this is the GFS' kill zone. I generally find the GFS between 60-84 hours to be its most accurate range.

So this is a difficult one.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2025120318/gfs_asnow_us_16.png

Toss the GFS

6 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Toss the GFS

Real scientific, actually if you say that, I would be inclined to ride it.

What I would do if I had to make a forecast for money right now, I would go in harder than the NWS, but not nearly as high as the GFS, and go with 1-2 for Saturday night here.

17 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

I have a little conundrum for the Saturday night forecast in my area.

The GFS is basically alone with this forecast, but it basically shows advisory level snows here.

Now normally if the GFS is alone, I automatically dismiss it.
But this is the GFS' kill zone. I generally find the GFS between 60-84 hours to be its most accurate range.

So this is a difficult one.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2025120318/gfs_asnow_us_16.png

Wouldn't say its alone as the rest have the disturbance further north, but not by a terribly large distance. The GEFS also has the disturbance ever so slightly further north than its operational member.

1 minute ago, tmagan said:

Wouldn't say its alone as the rest have the disturbance further north, but not by a terribly large distance. The GEFS also has the disturbance ever so slightly further north than its operational member.

Yeah, I mean the feature exists on all models. One thing I have noticed is that snow has been more widespread than modeled this early in the season out here, so I think we will get a little something Saturday night.

Also, it will only take about 0.03 or 0.04 to produce one inch, so that shouldn't be that hard to achieve.

Hoping this changes

6 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Hoping this changes

It won't. All hope is lost. Back the car in the garage, close it and rev the engine.

1 minute ago, Snowlover76 said:

It won't. All hope is lost. Back the car in the garage, close it and rev the engine.

Cold and dry.

Hey it happens

Actually, it seems like the pattern so far has been a few dry weeks, then a few wet weeks, so it may be time for the NYC metro to cycle to dry for a few weeks.

It happened in Dec 2010 and then everything went boom.