3 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

In that area, I usually consider anything before Dec 15 to be a bonus anyway.

JB in his update today notes a +EPO for a bit mid month so we'll likely see a warmup/rain around then before the cold returns

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

JB in his update today notes a +EPO for a bit mid month so we'll likely see a warmup/rain around then before the cold returns

Yeah maybe like 48 hours lol

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

JB in his update today notes a +EPO for a bit mid month so we'll likely see a warmup/rain around then before the cold returns

Its transient

Its a 3 day cutter not a warmup

4 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Its transient

Its a 3 day cutter not a warmup

the timing is good-let's get the cold back after that and then we have a chance at something going into xmas

8 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Its transient

Its a 3 day cutter not a warmup

We used to call that reloading the pattern.

Highs today may bust low if we don't clear out.

The forecast is upper 20s, I'm still at 15 and it's solid overcast. Of course, the forecast says mostly sunny, but we'll see.

I can't handle the rain depiction with heights below 534 on the coast at nighttime.

It's giving me a rash

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I can't handle the rain depiction with heights below 534 on the coast at nighttime.

It's giving me a rash

It could be right, but it could also be the model being incorrect with boundary layer temps.

We just have to wait.

You can see how different the CMC/ICON are compared to the GFS off the west coast, even just a week out, which continues to give us major pattern differences mid-month.

The GEFS is giving a nod to the ICON/CMC as well.

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the timing is good-let's get the cold back after that and then we have a chance at something going into xmas

Problem is I have a really cold period from Dec 1 - Jan 15

The MJO supports it.

However its just hard to snow and for a myriad of reasons.

Unless we block everything out of the N branch early on has to rain

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I can't handle the rain depiction with heights below 534 on the coast at nighttime.

It's giving me a rash

No blocking E wind

Come on we've become accustomed to it lol.

CMC doesn't have any of those rain showers, and pretty much nothing at all minus a little snow day 9.

More of a ridge break on the GEFS compared to the GFS off the west coast, but not to the level of the CMC/ICON.

Just now, FrankPizz said:

CMC doesn't have any of those rain showers, and pretty much nothing at all minus a little snow day 9.

Once again huge differences with models

three more weeks till Christmas...plenty of time for something to pop before...hopefully the week before Christmas...any snow within the next week will be gone by then...

Major ice and snow storm followed by another snowstorm at the end of the GFS and then the PV drops in!

Brrrrrrrrr

The Euro does something similar to the Canadian mid-month, in cutting off the energy underneath the -WPO block, which then later becomes an -EPO block.

stj ??