Bluewave says he's rather have a strong nino December than this one..lol

Still shocked at how much next week ended up trending on the GFS compared to just yesterday.

 

Some of those guys are nuts.  Let's try to keep our thoughts here and theirs there.  No point in bringing that here since some of those people are why this board was created.  

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

Still shocked at how much next week ended up trending on the GFS compared to just yesterday.

 

Early December warmup is gone..3 days ago it had me in the 60's Dec 2nd and 3rd..

37 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

The only time we saw +AO/-PNA/+NAO with a high amplitude phase 8 MJO was December 1991 - but this is still not a good analog, since December 1991 featured a strong El Niño.

 

That is also the pattern response you would expect to see with phase 8 + El Niño + December.

 

The lack of historical La Niña analogs for such a pattern given that MJO state does arguably raise some caution flags for mid-month.

 

here are the la nina/weak neg Decembers with a monthly -PNA, +NAO and AO...

1954

1971

1983

1998

2013

2016

2021

 

Gfs!

9 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

Some of those guys are nuts.  Let's try to keep our thoughts here and theirs there.  No point in bringing that here since some of those people are why this board was created.  

I agree.

 

My fault. I started it. 

9 minutes ago, uncle w said:

here are the la nina/weak neg Decembers with a monthly -PNA, +NAO and AO...

1954

1971

1983

1998

2013

2016

2021

 

 

Thanks. 1998/2013/2016/2021 didn't have a single day at high amplitude phase 8. 1954/1971 is before the BOM archive that starts in 1975. 1983 had a couple days in 8, but that also coincided with a -AO.

 

So no historical December Niña analogs for -PNA/+AO/+NAO while in high amplitude phase 8 as far as I can tell.

The warm up is turning into 10 hours of light rain with temps in the 40's followed by deep winter

1 minute ago, Metfan88 said:

 

Don't yell at me but the press should press that to DC

 

But thats ok with a - PNA there should be several shots 

2 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

 

Don't yell at me but the press should press that to DC

 

But thats ok with a - PNA there should be several shots 

Remember when social media and blue wave were saying this time period was a mega torch 

2 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

 

Don't yell at me but the press should press that to DC

 

But thats ok with a - PNA there should be several shots 

 

That's a beautiful wave on the Arctic front. 

Just now, Sundog said:

 

That's a beautiful wave on the Arctic front. 

 

- EPO type 

 

For sure 

Just now, Ben H said:

Remember when social media and blue wave were saying this time period was a mega torch 

Yep 2 days ago

Just now, Ben H said:

Remember when social media and blue wave were saying this time period was a mega torch 

 

I fed Anthony every day.

 

He owes me

 

He would use my brain and his fat fingers

D 5 - 10

 

 

 

Gfs just flipped the switch . Warmth vanished.

12z GFS is a snow or no pattern