Honest question for everybody. I know the lack of snow sucks and maybe this will be like December 1989 cold and dry. But what would you rather have?

Do you want December 2015 where the lowest temperature in New York City that month was 34°. Does anybody want a 72° temperature on Christmas Eve with a dew point of 66?

Getting snow would be absolutely great getting a big storm would be better. But if worst came to worst and December was snowless here I would much rather have it cold and snow less than warm and snowless.

That piece of PV lobe gets all the way to Saint Louis and is still going SE.

This is one of the strongest Arctic outbreaks you may ever see this tme of year. For those who have fresh snowcover, record lows may be very doable.

Close

PV lobe now in Louisville Saturday evening has a band of snow ahead of it.

Will that make it to the coast?

Just now, Analog1888 said:

PV lobe now in Louisville Saturday evening has a band of snow ahead of it.

Will that make it to the coast?

Arctic squalls are one of my favorites

Could this be something to watch? It tries to pop a little coastal near VA beach.!

3 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

Close

The low at the W VA/PA border is all too familiar.

I don't trust this at all.

It goes OTS, but you can get a coastal to pop if the PV drops all the way in like that. That could be a fast way to get a heavy snowstorm without blocking in this pattern.

-WPO

Dives the whole vortex into the SE

We are seeing wild run to run changes across the Pacific, due to how models are handling the energy underneath the -WPO block. Arguably more risk than normal to the upcoming pattern.

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The low at the W VA/PA border is all too familiar.

I don't trust this at all.

It did correct S.

But its super early

@VIRGAMAN

Below 0

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The low at the W VA/PA border is all too familiar.

I don't trust this at all.

As long as it stays south of your latitude, you're ok.

2 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

We are seeing wild run to run changes across the Pacific, due to how models are handling the energy underneath the -WPO block. Arguably more risk than normal to the upcoming pattern.

Geez that PNA spike would be a gas changer.

5 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

It goes OTS, but you can get a coastal to pop if the PV drops all the way in like that. That could be a fast way to get a heavy snowstorm without blocking in this pattern.

Looks like an IVT

The parade of clippers that comes down is real. Of course, the problem with them is they have sharp temperature and snowfall gradients and you can go from 6-10" in one area to nothing in another area very quickly.

But they keep reinforcing the cold air. And they tend to "disappear" after 200 hours because they come from data-deprived regions.

Anything beyond 168 hours, I would bet colder.

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Looks like an IVT

Those systems can certainly have IVTs and they would produce very high ratio snow.

Lots of blocking this run - the -WPO block tries to get into the Arctic/Atlantic regions as well.

IMO the 12th being seen by all 3 globals should develop into a trackable event for some on this board.

Hopefully all but thats not clear yet. I think this is a legit SW in this regime