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December map, observations, punch and pie

THE GREAT PB
THE GREAT PB
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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  • Author

17650391735682802784255144711441.png

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    2 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    17650391735682802784255144711441.png

    17650391940376469636520993769862.png

    17650392213077829260870636967359.png

    144 hours away…. Not like it’s 300 too

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    • Author

    Canadian has a 2nd SW..

    17650396213145101272078999008287.png

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    1 hour ago, Analog1888 said:

    Looking back, 1993-94 had really no blocking until the end of the winter.

    Maybe that's why it started a bit late and the first snow event was a clipper.

    We had a lot of overunning that year and finally got a big coastal in March when we got a little blocking.

    You can have a very good winter without a ton of blocking, but blocking is more important in December.

    the years with the weakest AO block...

    winter........AO

    1988-89...-0.3sd...3/4/89...

    1974-75...-1.7sd...12/18/74...

    1999-00...-2.1sd...2/18/00...

    2016-17...-2.2sd...2/14/17...

    2007-08...-2.5sd...1/2/08...

    2013-14...-2.6sd...1/27/14...

    1970-71...-2.8sd...2/6/71...

    1973-74...-2.8sd...12/19/73...

    some other years

    1993-94...-3.5sd...2/24/94...

    1995-96...-5.2sd...12/18/10...

    2000-01...-4.9sd...2/25/01

    2020-21...-5.3sd...2/10/21?

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    1 minute ago, uncle w said:

    the years with the weakest AO block...

    winter........AO

    1988-89...-0.3sd...3/4/89...

    1974-75...-1.7sd...12/18/74...

    1999-00...-2.1sd...2/18/00...

    2016-17...-2.2sd...2/14/17...

    2007-08...-2.5sd...1/2/08...

    2013-14...-2.6sd...1/27/14...

    1970-71...-2.8sd...2/6/71...

    1973-74...-2.8sd...12/19/73...

    some other years

    1993-94...-3.5sd...2/24/94...

    1995-96...-5.2sd...12/18/10...

    2000-01...-4.9sd...2/25/01

    2020-21...-5.3sd...2/10/21?

    Yeah, 1994 peaked late and then a week later, there was a coastal storm.

    From what I remember the December 30, 2000 millennium storm was originated from a vigorous short wave from Manitoba which was not supposed to be a factor and one of the models zeroed in on it and wouldn’t budge. We were in a bitter cold regime think we had 9 to 10 consecutive days below freezing.

    Same thing happened late December through early January 2018 culminating with the big snowstorm on January 4, 2018.

    • Like 2

    Hmmm. Not to be ignored. Icon and Canadian see it also. IMG_0424.jpeg

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    5 minutes ago, Andrew said:

    From what I remember the December 30, 2000 millennium storm was originated from a vigorous short wave from Manitoba which was not supposed to be a factor and one of the models zeroed in on it and wouldn’t budge. We were in a bitter cold regime think we had 9 to 10 consecutive days below freezing.

    Same thing happened late December through early January 2018 culminating with the big snowstorm on January 4, 2018.

    Dec 2000 storm have a -4.7sd block...

    2000 12 21 -3.697
2000 12 22 -3.843
2000 12 23 -4.133
2000 12 24 -4.216
2000 12 25 -4.343
2000 12 26 -4.208
2000 12 27 -4.239
2000 12 28 -4.635
2000 12 29 -4.688
2000 12 30 -4.115
2000 12 31 -3.606
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    Think it's going to be important this winter to put into context what models are showing now vs what they were showing a few days ago for a given date. Lost count at the number of times this has happened already.

    gefs_trend.gif

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    • Author

    17650432136662736137168974710690.png

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    17650432774576863543105607135465.jpg

    PNA Spike looks good

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    38 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    Think it's going to be important this winter to put into context what models are showing now vs what they were showing a few days ago for a given date. Lost count at the number of times this has happened already.

    gefs_trend.gif

    Anything past day 5 has been showing large run to run changes since October it seems. Larger than usual

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    • Author

    17650446854423925450404350104353.pngLooks like Dec 03

    Another analog year

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    Damn cold

    IMG_2456.jpeg

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    Eps

    IMG_3024.gif

    IMG_3023.png

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    3 hours ago, Analog1888 said:

    @Snowlover76 will kill me if this happens LOL

    GFSSNOW.png

    Not really. Those setups never come west enough

    Nice connection setting up on the WC with PNA N EPO,/WPO

    17650490931897677868963482794029.jpg

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    • Author
    19 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

    Damn cold

    IMG_2456.jpeg

    Thats alot of below 0 from the N plains to the MW

    That turns colder as you get closer

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    • Author

    17650556535596799745452572182479.png

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    https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/topic/8399-december-map-observations-punch-and-pie/
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