Easy with the warmup thinking guys in p8 and a - wpo

This is example # 10 so far this December

You are likeky to be in p8 through Jan 5th

Along with a very negative WPO

Once again the same idiots are humping ridging in the east later in the forecast period.

Its another misunderstanding of what's driving the pattern and more falling in love with numerical d12 to d15 background state / NINA driven solutions

You will not lose the cold thru mid Jan in this set up.

Again any snow will be of the lighter variety out of the N branch and as Ns are going lower the anomalies begin to work in a more frozen favor

the analog of 2013-14 had a very different mjo...it actually was in different phases...it went into phase 8 in March when it stayed cold but we got very little snow out of it...

wpo in Dec 2013...

2013 12 01 -159.29
2013 12 02 -205.03
2013 12 03 -230.17
2013 12 04 -230.04
2013 12 05 -208.36
2013 12 06 -204.36
2013 12 07 -232.25
2013 12 08 -268.94
2013 12 09 -247.27
2013 12 10 -223.59
2013 12 11 -230.97
2013 12 12 -234.26
2013 12 13 -203.38
2013 12 14 -211.14
2013 12 15 -264.66
2013 12 16 -317.49
2013 12 17 -304.92
2013 12 18 -230.97
2013 12 19 -144.70
2013 12 20 -127.12
2013 12 21 -115.76
2013 12 22 -102.29
2013 12 23 -103.66
2013 12 24  -92.93
2013 12 25  -79.25
2013 12 26  -66.92
2013 12 27  -73.43
2013 12 28  -66.47
2013 12 29   -6.26
2013 12 30   54.49
2013 12 31   68.73

Lol 6z GFS develops that se ridge again in the later period..its been trying the last month.. plus now a Christmas hurricane hitting key west .even though I just did, dont look at this model past day 7..btw Euro has been guilty of this too since November

22 minutes ago, uncle w said:

wpo in Dec 2013...

2013 12 01 -159.29
2013 12 02 -205.03
2013 12 03 -230.17
2013 12 04 -230.04
2013 12 05 -208.36
2013 12 06 -204.36
2013 12 07 -232.25
2013 12 08 -268.94
2013 12 09 -247.27
2013 12 10 -223.59
2013 12 11 -230.97
2013 12 12 -234.26
2013 12 13 -203.38
2013 12 14 -211.14
2013 12 15 -264.66
2013 12 16 -317.49
2013 12 17 -304.92
2013 12 18 -230.97
2013 12 19 -144.70
2013 12 20 -127.12
2013 12 21 -115.76
2013 12 22 -102.29
2013 12 23 -103.66
2013 12 24  -92.93
2013 12 25  -79.25
2013 12 26  -66.92
2013 12 27  -73.43
2013 12 28  -66.47
2013 12 29   -6.26
2013 12 30   54.49
2013 12 31   68.73

Hey Unc, do you have a website for this? Thanks brother.

6 minutes ago, chief7 said:

Hey Unc, do you have a website for this? Thanks brother.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) monitoring

go to monitoring and then archives...

wpo...

downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

On 11/24/2025 at 2:21 PM, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Not only do I think we go into p8 its possible that we continue into p1

 

 

We are tracking along with some very good Decembers

 

 

Early December p7 NINAs have looked this in some of the years were there was warming at 10mb and 50mb

 

 

The winds dont always reverse however the warming over the pole ultimately releases a major Arctic outbreak south during all of those months. 

 

My thoughts are mid month or around Christmas you may see the same result 

 

 

 

In the midst of all the warm calls away and their promises of the MJO dying in p7 I think the release of the PV into the lakes now mid month along w being stuck in p8 is turning out pretty good.

I am working on January

Its far enough away for me to extend this an xrta 2 weeks until Feb 1st but thats how long I think our BN regime can last.

There are features that dont want to move in the LR and those forecast a trough in the east

I dont believe in that ridge with that pressure pattern

Just look at your mean source region.

I want to see where the SSW ruined winter is in 2 weeks but non of this has the earmarks of any kind of sustained warmup

A little light action on nam

2 minutes ago, amugs said:

Pumping through N WPO and EPO region!

KLGA hit 100° in June 2025 was a good indicator that we were going to be cold this December. I don’t know why that is but the analog is very good for that.

Maybe this could be the first Christmas week with temperatures don’t get into the 50s in many many years. That would be a big win and I believe that’s looking more likely.

AI GFS

GFS cold and dry for the next week.

GFS is fairly transient with any warm up end of the 3rd week of Dec.

5 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

GFS is fairly transient with any warm up end of the 3rd week of Dec.

There is almost zero precip for most on this board through 300 hours.

Just now, jjvesnow said:

There is almost zero precip for most on this board through 300 hours.

Brutal. Every clipper just goes poof

5 minutes ago, Blizzard2020 said:

Brutal. Every clipper just goes poof

One of the more fryer GFS runs I have seen