34 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Hope the GFS AI is right?

Ryan maue has posted that this model has been doing well, but who knows.

The month is becoming a very cold uneventful month.

If you force like this for 30 days youre going to get the same results over 30 days.

Its not a snow pattern .

Snow game in Buffalo

11 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

The month is becoming a very cold uneventful month.

If you force like this for 30 days youre going to get the same results over 30 days.

Its not a snow pattern .

It's a wasting money on heating with nothing to show for it pattern.

Hopefully the models are wrong as they so often are post 7 days.

I honestly wouldn’t expect much action until after the 18th. Around then the lag time for the SOI negative values should be over and our weather pattern should start seeing a more involved STJ because negative values of the daily contributions of the SOI are Nino like and those provide momentum to the STJ. also phase 8 should provide some influence as well.

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

It's a wasting money on heating with nothing to show for it pattern.

Hopefully the models are wrong as they so often are post 7 days.

I agree about the useless cold.

Its a wasted SSW and p8 month

I punted

Operational and ensembles look to moderate temperatures and of course that’s when we get a cutter with rain by third week of December. Figures bitter cold and dry than warms up for a couple days and rains.

The climate is so broken.

Just now, BMC10 said:

Operational and ensembles look to moderate temperatures and of course that’s when we get a cutter with rain by third week of December. Figures bitter cold and dry than warms up for a couple days and rains.

I cant be sure if the W trough idea is legit w a - WPO / P8 look.

I can see a cutter inside the period because troughs pulse and pull back all the time.

The overall theme is BN but the flow is too fast for any real snow

I punted the month because im sick of looking for flurries and paying a crazy heat bill w nothing to show for it.

Humbug

1 hour ago, FrankPizz said:

Snow game in Buffalo

also cleveland

19 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Humbug

f*** it i if it's going to be cold and no snow, bring on the warmth and I could save money on my oil bill

23 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Humbug

Here comes the warmth, yay

25 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Humbug

Not gonna verify

Why do we do this? If someone posts a 354 hour map that shows cold, they get called a weenie.

But if a 354 hour map shows warmth, it's going to happen?

Operational models have shown warmth beyond 270 for the last few weeks and none of it has verified.

Why would it verify now?

1 minute ago, BMC10 said:

Here comes the warmth, yay

I'm not sure if its just a wonky day of runs because we've seen the ensembles make the same mistake several times since late November

Gona wait until tomorrow to see if thats a real flip

Also, it's December 7. It's better to be cold now than warm. If it was warm with no snow, there's no potential anywhere. If it's cold, all you need is a clipper or a PV wave and you get snow. Dec 2000 was very cold with no snow until Dec 30 and then we get 10-18". Dec 2010 was cold with no snow until Dec 26 and then many areas got over two feet. There is a reason the Northeast's snow climo is what it is. I know about the Dec 5 snowstorms and the Dec 2003 bomb, etc, but it's actually very rare to get more than a few inches before Dec 15-20.

History shows that. If we ride the cold pattern, and it looks like we will, because it has been so persistent, it will snow. Also, if the SOI continues to plunge, we'll get the STJ involved.

If not, and it stays really cold, I could see something like 1993-94, where we didn't have any real big snows until late Jan, but we had a lot of small events starting after Christmas and throughout January.

The STJ getting involved into an already established La Nina pattern is about the best thing you could possibly ask for.

AI has done well

Another thing is, these maps are snapshots.
All they show is that it is above normal at one particular point in time.

The 5 day mean maps are much more useful.

3 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Why do we do this? If someone posts a 354 hour map that shows cold, they get called a weenie.

But if a 354 hour map shows warmth, it's going to happen?

Operational models have shown warmth beyond 270 for the last few weeks and none of it has verified.

Why would it verify now?

it only Dec 7th...this is not 2001 when we had no chance...it will warm up but probably be a one or two day thing...then it gets cold again...