6 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

I'm not sure if its just a wonky day of runs because we've seen the ensembles make the same mistake several times since late November

Gona wait until tomorrow to see if thats a real flip

You’re gonna have to wait longer than a day to see if it’s real. Since November then ensembles have let go of their warmup ideas in between hours 240 and 300ish

1 minute ago, uncle w said:

it only Dec 7th...this is not 2001 when we had no chance...it will warm up but probably be a one or two day thing...then it gets cold again...

Exactly. When you have a year like 2001 or 2011 and it's just warm and dry with nothing in sight, you know there is no chance. If you have a super Nino like 1998 or 2016, you know you need to have everything work out just right.

This year is not one of those cases.

If you hate cold December is with little snow you would’ve absolutely hated the 1970s.

If it was 44° on June 7 there isn’t a single person who would cancel the rest of summer or even say that it is not going to be like a summer this year we’re not going to get any summer weather. People know that it’s early and there’s a whole summer ahead of them.

Go back and look at how December 2014 was. I know it was it was a completely different pattern but nobody and I mean nobody expected what we were going to get from late January on through March.

All it’s going to take is an inch or 2 to get the board very happy and get everybody off of the ledge.

~-5 SD of WPO is brutal cold

30 minutes ago, amugs said:

~-5 SD of WPO is brutal cold

That is impressive, but At this point mugs, I could care less about the brutal cold. I much rather have a negative AO or NAO and a positive Pna

How on Dec 7th can one say Dec 22nd it will be warm when EVERY supposed "warm" period has turned out cols/BN...

Wveryone sin e Mid August.

The absolute gnashing of teeth about the pattern as we have just entered Phase 8 and have a SOI crashing the last 6 days and a N WPO and possible EPO with the PDO rising is perplexing. You have the biggestingredient cold and without it you have no shot of snow. It takes longer to to flush out eradicate a warm pattern and establish a cold pattern. We have the cold pattern, some northern vorts will be active, STJ should get a boost with the SOI crash.

Be patient.

27 minutes ago, chief7 said:

That is impressive, but At this point mugs, I could care less about the brutal cold. I much rather have a negative AO or NAO and a positive Pna

We had those last year and we had cold rain because the orientation and timing was off as was the MJO wave. BUT I get your point. Time will tell.

48 minutes ago, chief7 said:

That is impressive, but At this point mugs, I could care less about the brutal cold. I much rather have a negative AO or NAO and a positive Pna

AO maybe, NAO I don't really care that much. I have seen too many -NAOs hook up with the SE Ridge.

Arctic Blizzard for these folks

GFS close 14-15 that's the PV wave

Thats close...

1 minute ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Thats close...

Yeah better timing of the two waves would help.

28 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

This would keep things interesting

Some weenie imagery

I don't buy any of these big snowstorms on the AI

But I am calling bllsht on the ridge in the east.

This just doesn't allow a ridge in the east

Week 3 CFS.

Look at d16 GFS the PV is back in time for Xmas week

9 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

I don't buy any of these big snowstorms on the AI

But I am calling bllsht on the ridge in the east.

This just doesn't allow a ridge in the east

Week 3 CFS.

Look at d16 GFS the PV is back in time for Xmas week

Yeah. As you mentioned big storms unlikely for a little while. We just got to get a clipper or two to drop 1-3 whiten the ground and let the cold winds blow it all around. I still think one of the clippers will produce something.