11 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

The NAM is completely missing this band of snow over central Ohio currently:

That is crazy. Wonder if it can hold together and swing through here

2 minutes ago, Keith O said:

4.8F here this morning

Wow! How did you end up 6 degrees colder than me.

Question for the Pittsburgh guys. Where is the rain snow line traditionally for you where when you get rain in Pittsburgh you get snow north in the west where exactly does that happen where is usually the cutoff what town is it and how far north of Pittsburgh? I’ve always meant to ask that

5 minutes ago, Andrew said:

Question for the Pittsburgh guys. Where is the rain snow line traditionally for you where when you get rain in Pittsburgh you get snow north in the west where exactly does that happen where is usually the cutoff what town is it and how far north of Pittsburgh? I’ve always meant to ask that

It does largely depend on the type of event that you are dealing with.

If it is a marginal airmass, like for tomorrow's system, then it could easily be rain in the city, & snow in the surrounding areas, based on the exact surface temperature neighborhood by neighborhood.

If you have a SWFE, the area changes over fairly quickly to mix/rain, since there are no mountains to shield us from the warm air moving in.

If it is a system that forms a lee side low near the mountains, then this could lead to a warm nose moving into the mountains, or even into Allegheny itself.

10 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Wow! How did you end up 6 degrees colder than me.

In the valley, DP was like -1F, clear skies, not a lick of wind and still some snow cover.

@SnowMiser123

Im guessing you like the potential for a nice event this weekend. Still a bit far away but most guidance shows atleast a small clipper

2 hours ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

We cut in Jan 96 after a snowstorm for the ages.

You can cut in any pattern.

But guys go loop the pressure pattern on the GEFS

The Arctic Hs Never stop diving in regardless of the high heights

Thats why I don't believe in the trough in the W outside of a cutter

Nice work Ben Solo I to believe it's more of a transit warm up 1 to 2 days at most and then back to the cold

16 minutes ago, Andrew said:

Question for the Pittsburgh guys. Where is the rain snow line traditionally for you where when you get rain in Pittsburgh you get snow north in the west where exactly does that happen where is usually the cutoff what town is it and how far north of Pittsburgh? I’ve always meant to ask that

We joke in the other weather forum about the Warm Tongue of Death. Usually whenever we start seeing signs of mixing then there's nothing that really stops it. I feel elevation here can make a small difference as well since there are so many hills.

11 minutes ago, Rdd9108 said:

We joke in the other weather forum about the Warm Tongue of Death. Usually whenever we start seeing signs of mixing then there's nothing that really stops it. I feel elevation here can make a small difference as well since there are so many hills.

kind of the same thing here on the east coast-the warm tongue is almost always undermodeled and races north-no hills on the coast to stop it...lol

Here is a short term difference that we will resolve pretty quickly in SW PA - the NAM is around 33, the HRRR is 33-34, the RGEM is 37-39 at 8 am tomorrow for the Pittsburgh area. That will make or break what this area ends up seeing tomorrow, and we will know fairly early on which scenario ends up being closer to being correct.

14 minutes ago, Rdd9108 said:

We joke in the other weather forum about the Warm Tongue of Death. Usually whenever we start seeing signs of mixing then there's nothing that really stops it. I feel elevation here can make a small difference as well since there are so many hills.

Helps me slightly being at such high elevation where I am at in Bethel (I think close to highest in AGC) but can't stop the WTOD once it starts showing up. Franklin Park/North Hills area and up to Cranberry can be less affected.

I used to post in that forum, but a couple of guys have killed that board.

Possibly a negative AO coming up in the future

ICON a bit more juiced with the clipper this weekend

6 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

ICON a bit more juiced with the clipper this weekend

Nice! better then the flat boring southern slider.

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

kind of the same thing here on the east coast-the warm tongue is almost always undermodeled and races north-no hills on the coast to stop it...lol

It is and if you do it correctly, you can track that out there vs models and come up with a pretty good idea of what will happen later further east.

4 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Nice! better then the flat boring southern slider.

It actually has something now, prior runs it was barely anything

GFS at this point looking too warm for tomorrow.

1 minute ago, PaulTarsus said:

GFS at this point looking too warm for tomorrow.

3 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

Looks much better there than on Tidbits, as does Pivotal