Some changes today.

3 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Some changes today.

Looks like a zonal modified Pacific flow. The EPS has been trending toward a more negative PNA later in the month. Unless there is some significant modeling error, hard to see much in the way of winter weather as we get to later December.

Just now, tmagan said:

Looks like a zonal modified Pacific flow. The EPS has been trending toward a more negative PNA later in the month. Unless there is some significant modeling error, hard to see much in the way of winter weather as we get to later December.

Only hoping for maybe some overrunning with that look?

By the way... Ensembles are still mainly on the dry side too.

2 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Only hoping for maybe some overrunning with that look?

By the way... Ensembles are still mainly on the dry side too.

December is not a great overrunning month for us.

As I stated earlier, if you want precipitation, head to the Middle East, where it will be way above normal.

Unless something significant changes, looks like Central Park will continue its streak of below normal snowfall months.

6 minutes ago, tmagan said:

December is not a great overrunning month for us.

As I stated earlier, if you want precipitation, head to the Middle East, where it will be way above normal.

Unless something significant changes, looks like Central Park will continue its streak of below normal snowfall months.

and has been stated before a snowless December does not bode well for the rest of winter...

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

and has been stated before a snowless December does not bode well for the rest of winter...

I'm at 50% of N snow.

NYC doesn't see 4 inches in December

That would seal the deal

7 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Im at 50% of N snow.

NYC doesn't see 4 inches in December

That would seal the deal

could end up with #'s like last year 10-20 inches depending on locale. Better than some ratter winters at least

11 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

I'm at 50% of N snow.

NYC doesn't see 4 inches in December

That would seal the deal

1977-78 and 2004-05 beg to differ

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

could end up with #'s like last year 10-20 inches depending on locale. Better than some ratter winters at least

there is also those lousy distorted winters such as 82-83 and 15-16 where you had a one hit wonder only

Also i am not personally sure how important that statistic is. Take 2000, for example. If that snow was 2 days later, does that mean the whole winter would have been different? 1993 was another one. We barely escaped dec with 3 inches on the 29th. If that had waited 3 more days, does that mean the whole winter would have been different?

Just now, Analog1888 said:

Also i am not personally sure how important that statistic is. Take 2000, for example. If that snow was 2 days later, does that mean the whole winter would have been different? 1993 was another one. We barely escaped dec with 3 inches on the 29th. If that had waited 3 more days, does that mean the whole winter would have been different?

No but I think it portends that if there is a storm or two in December, the pattern will repeat later in the winter. 20-21 had a big december snow then we got the snowy 3 weeks in Feb. There are outliers of course, but it's a general rule of thumb

5 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

1977-78 and 2004-05 beg to differ

Dry winter.

Thats my take on snow.

37 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Some changes today.

Long range, as Paul and Miser have been posting for weeks, have been correcting as we move closer in time. We will see if it does that again in a few days. Snow is the wildcard that we really never know about.

50 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Looks like a zonal modified Pacific flow. The EPS has been trending toward a more negative PNA later in the month. Unless there is some significant modeling error, hard to see much in the way of winter weather as we get to later December.

But I actually like this look because you get a negative EPO and those temperature differences and you could get waves developing along the boundary and we can get snow out of those much like what happened in 1993-94 and 2013-14 and 2014-25

9 minutes ago, Andrew said:

But I actually like this look because you get a negative EPO and those temperature differences and you could get waves developing along the boundary and we can get snow out of those much like what happened in 1993-94 and 2013-14 and 2014-25

Winter storm warning for 7-12” tomorrow up here.

Decembers with a 4" snowfall since 1947...

winter.....Dec 4" ....seasonal snow...big snowfalls after Dec...

1947-48.....26.4"..........63.2"..........5.7"

1948-49.....16.0"..........46.6"..........9.4"

1952-53.......4.5"..........15.1"............2.0"...the Dec storm was a two part storm with rain in the middle...

1957-58.......8.0"..........44.7"..........11.8"

1959-60.....13.7"..........39.2"..........14.5"

1960-61.....15.2"..........54.7"..........17.4"

1961-62.......6.2"..........18.1"............2.9"...the Dec storm was a two part storm with mix and drizzle in the middle...

1963-64.......6.3"..........44.7"..........12.5"

1966-67.......7.1"..........51.5"..........12.5"

1968-69.......5.2"..........30.2"..........15.3"

1969-70.......6.8"..........25.6"..........4.0"...the Dec storm was two parts with rain in the middle...

1984-85.......4.8"..........24.1"..........5.7"

1990-91.......7.2"..........24.6"..........8.9"

1993-94.......4.0"..........53.4"..........12.8"

1995-96.......7.7"..........75.6"..........20.2"

2000-01.....12.0"..........35.0"............6.0"

2002-03.......6.0" 5.0" 49.3"..........19.8"

2003-04.....14.0"..........42.6"..........10.4"

2005-06.......5.8"..........40.0"..........26.9"

2008-09.......4.0"..........27.6"............8.3"

2009-10.....10.9"..........51.4"..........20.9"

2010-11.....20.0"..........61.9"..........19.0"

2013-14.......5.0"..........57.4"..........12.5"

2017-18.......4.6"..........40.9"..........9.9"

2020-21.....10.5"..........38.6".........17.4"

since 1870 there have been 11 winters with 27-51" when NYC had less than 3" before January...last times this happened...

2014-15...

2004-05...

1978-79...

1977-78...

35 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Dry winter.

Thats my take on snow.

Agreed dry pattern for a few years now. We were lucky to get over 20 last year.

9 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

big change to +EPO there

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

big change to +EPO there

Thats the ridge flying through.

Yup