widespread disagreement with members of the ao forecast going forward...

8 minutes ago, uncle w said:

widespread disagreement with members of the ao forecast going forward...

Wow, some of that spread is huge

As high as I was on the cold December im high on this for January

9 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

As high as I was on the cold December im high on this for January

Damn. Driving right now does tbatlook bad?

7 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

As high as I was on the cold December im high on this for January

Mean trough still in the east. Pac/polar airmass (as opposed to Arctic origin), but relative to average, we can still manage wintry events in the NE.

1 minute ago, Castellanus said:

Mean trough still in the east. Pac/polar airmass (as opposed to Arctic origin), but relative to average, we can still manage wintry events in the NE.

might not be as suppressed as this pattern is....

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

might not be as suppressed as this pattern is....

Yes Chicago says ty

1 minute ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Yes Chicago says ty

Cutter city

10 minutes ago, Castellanus said:

Mean trough still in the east. Pac/polar airmass (as opposed to Arctic origin), but relative to average, we can still manage wintry events in the NE.

True, I also remember from a few weeks ago the 1104 hour maps showing 20"+ for the area, we have a dusting, lol.

13 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

As high as I was on the cold December im high on this for January

you must be smoking the wrong stuff...that would be like the 2005-06 winter...I'll take it if Feb produced a 27" snowstorm...I don't buy it but the pattern we are in now isn't great for a KU...we might get one this year...but its only Dec 9th so I'm not worried...Its what you expected going in that makes you want to scream or take it for what it is...I had 15-25" for this winter and wasn't expecting anything great...but I wasn't expecting a complete dud so if that happens, I'll feel it...one thing some analogs have is their biggest snowstorm came in March...1980-81 and 1983-84 are two examples...

4 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

True, I also remember from a few weeks ago the 1104 hour maps showing 20"+ for the area, we have a dusting, lol.

those maps should be put out to pasture-complete and utter garbage.

PGH NWS discussion

Where the most tricky part of the forecast comes in is actually for

the lower elevations of eastern OH and southwestern PA. 12z CAMs

have taken on a slightly colder solution as the shield of precip

arrives before sunrise and an enhanced push in the mid-morning

hours. Forecast soundings show a very deep saturated layer well

through and above the DGZ with strong synoptic forcing. Most of the

entire profile is below freezing save the lowest few hundred feet

where surface temperatures sit a degree or two above freezing.

Should this be the case, a wet and cold rain will be the result.

However, if surface temps are slightly overdone by the CAMs and/or

dynamics cool the profile further than advertised, there is a

conditional threat for a thump of heavy, wet snow to impact a good

portion of southwest Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, and the panhandle

of West Virginia in the early morning to early afternoon hours. This

may be a situation in which we have to see the whites of its eyes in

the morning before knowing how it exactly will play out, but the

worst case scenario could be a couple inches of accumulation

with impacts to the morning commute.

 

Finally, by the afternoon hours, a transition to convective snow

showers with continued upslope in the ridges is likely as the

stronger synoptic forcing moves east. Profiles suggest

sufficient saturation through the DGZ remaining with steepening

lapse rates in a low-level cold advection regime. Localized

snow bands could produce another burst of accumulation and

visibility reduction for the afternoon commute.

 

Beyond the precipitation, tight surface gradients will foster gusty

wind between 30-40 mph in the afternoon in the lower elevations,

with 40-50 mph gusts possible in the ridges and peak gusts as high

as 60 mph possible in the highest ridges of eastern Tucker County,

WV.

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

those maps should be put out to pasture-complete and utter garbage.

Yeah, those weeklies thought it was going to be wet and we haven't been at all.

NAM still interesting for the N and W guys. That snow depiction misses here by a few miles.

ICON for weekend

All any of us ask is 1-2” - is that too much to ask?

29 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Damn. Driving right now does tbatlook bad?

Not so bad west of the mississippi.

We need a shuffle in the pattern

All this talk about a sswe and MJO in favorable phase, I guess it doesn’t mean much.

5 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

All this talk about a sswe and MJO in favorable phase, I guess it doesn’t mean much.

Its meant cold. Storms haven't worked out for the tri-state