Just now, FrankPizz said:

Its meant cold. Storms haven't worked out for the tri-state

Yes but the mjo was supposed to be in the cold phase until further notice, not jump right to warm

5 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Yes but the mjo was supposed to be in the cold phase until further notice, not jump right to warm

it still wants to stay favorable...

1 minute ago, uncle w said:

it still wants to stay favorable...

Well then maybe today's models are wrong

Maybe they are picking up on something incorrect

ICON was 4

GFS AI

Gfs not much but sadly that is better than 12z

The Canadian parallel

1 minute ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

The Canadian parallel

I think ill model hump these ai/para models. They like to show Snow 😃

2 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

I think ill model hump these ai/para models. They like to show Snow 😃

GFS AI is going operational on 12/17 per notice today.

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-89_AIGFS_AIGEFS_and_HGEFS.pdf

Effective on December 17, 2025, with the 1200 UTC cycle, the NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will implement three new models: the Artificial Intelligence Global Forecast System (AIGFS) v1.0, the Artificial Intelligence Global Ensemble Forecast System (AIGEFS) v1.0, and the Hybrid Global Ensemble Forecast System (HGEFS) v1.0. AIGFS and AIGEFS v1.0 were developed by NCEP in collaboration with the NOAA research laboratories and the Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC) in the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). The models are based on Google DeepMind's GraphCast model. AIGFS runs for global deterministic forecasting, and AIGEFS runs with 31 members to provide ensemble forecasts. HGEFS is a hybrid global ensemble system combining the AIGEFS v1.0 with the operational GEFSv12. This 62-member ensemble is composed of 31 members from each of the two systems.

Wow, thanks for that! I wonder when stats will be available for them. I didnt click the link, just ready what you copied and pasted. I think the hybrid on was what maue was saying was pretty good

The trend for 5 months again is cold can not be seen in LR but some will ride this. It was ti be warm, torch I heard for Turkey Day and the week following, last week and we've been way BN during thi entire period. This has been again for the umpteenth time, since mid Aug. As Webb has talked about ad nauseum +TNH pattern will be the overall driver. Be patient and if we can thread the needle we have a decent, a few inches snowstorm.

This is where the MJO readings show phase 8. It's a bit of a fight as shown in the OLR maps and convection maps showing phase 4 and 7 and 8

Enlarge this imageClick to see fullsize


Enlarge this imageClick to see fullsize


Enlarge this imageClick to see fullsize

Nice

So EURO, AIFS, and GFS AI give a lot of use 1-3 inches Sunday morning

Aifs

Euro

Euro