12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

gradient patterns rarely work out at our latitude-better for central/northern New England

If we snow Sunday and some get 2 - 4 we have to take it as a win for December

3 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

40 degrees here. No chance the HRRR/NAM verify from yesterday.

The upcoming warm up is different than the fake warm ups until now - the pattern is reacting to a wave reflection event off of the polar vortex.

The warmer pattern should remain in place until another driver is able to take over, e.g. MJO becoming more high amplitude away from neutral.

Great post.

7 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

40 degrees here. No chance the HRRR/NAM verify from yesterday.

The upcoming warm up is different than the fake warm ups until now - the pattern is reacting to a wave reflection event off of the polar vortex.

The warmer pattern should remain in place until another driver is able to take over, e.g. MJO becoming more high amplitude away from neutral.

I guess my question is “how warm will this warmer pattern be”?

Cause not for nothing. It has been pretty darn cold Late November into early December.

I am assuming we are below average by a nice margin.

Are we going into a regime that is more “normalish” or slightly above? Still looks on the dryer side though which is annoying.

I have full ice on my lake already and it hasn’t happened this early in the 7 years I have lived here.

Stole these from another board, but always love these maps.

My one buddy works at a golf course and grabbed these 2 pics this morning. That spire looked incredible

10 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

If we snow Sunday and some get 2 - 4 we have to take it as a win for December

If the park doesn't get >4 inches it might as well not snow at all.

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

If the park doesn't get >4 inches it might as well not snow at all.

We need a vei 7 i read

This doesn’t look awful

JB agrees with Roundy about a brief break in the cold.

That’s why I’m so skeptical of this MJO and sswe stuff. People were adamant that because of it certain things would materialize. I think you are just better off keeping an eye on the models from about day 10 to zero and seeing what unfolds.

Christmas looks warm.

1 minute ago, BMC10 said:

Christmas looks warm.

Christmas is warm all the time it seems, even in good snow years.

Somthing about that time of year

7 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

That’s why I’m so skeptical of this MJO and sswe stuff. People were adamant that because of it certain things would materialize. I think you are just better off keeping an eye on the models from about day 10 to zero and seeing what unfolds.

Yeah, but with the MJO in the circle of death right now its not a big driving force.

1 minute ago, jjvesnow said:

Yeah, but with the MJO in the circle of death right now its not a big driving force.

Yeah but a few days ago it was 8 amplified. Those forecast plots are seldom correct. It is what it is. Let’s score a 2-4 this weekend and see what things look like end of December

It just goes to show there is a lot going on in the atmosphere and MJO is not the only factor. BTW I am hoping these models are correct because there is a signal for a snow event out here 12/24-25.

20 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

That’s why I’m so skeptical of this MJO and sswe stuff. People were adamant that because of it certain things would materialize. I think you are just better off keeping an eye on the models from about day 10 to zero and seeing what unfolds.

yep just 2-3 days ago it looked cold through the end of the month yesterday started a trend of warming and it's only intensified with the overnight runs. Oh well. Dry/ cold sucks anyway.

6 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

It just goes to show there is a lot going on in the atmosphere and MJO is not the only factor. BTW I am hoping these models are correct because there is a signal for a snow event out here 12/24-25.

Yeh but the run thru p4 is whats causing the transient warm up

It shows you how strong the tropics are

19 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

Christmas looks warm.

Every single year

This may be a net positive, as the contrast helps energize the STJ.

This may be a net positive, as the contrast helps energize the STJ.