Folks, try stop trying to control weather. It never works. Take things day by day.Don;t look past day 10 on models and you might keep your sanity.Haven't we learned anything being on these boards the last 25 years?

11 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

Every single year

Last year was cold and a white Christmas, but yes, for the past 10-15 it has been above normal more often than not

3 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

Last year was cold and a white Christmas, but yes, for the past 10-15 it has been above normal more often than not

They need to start making Christmas movies with bare ground instead of snow.

3 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

They need to start making Christmas movies with bare ground instead of snow.

You live in an area that has an 18% chance of a white Christmas.

6 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

Operational and ensembles look to moderate temperatures and of course that’s when we get a cutter with rain by third week of December. Figures bitter cold and dry than warms up for a couple days and rains.

Its not a cutter pattern

2 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

They need to start making Christmas movies with bare ground instead of snow.

80 percent of the globe has no snow on the ground on Christmas.. be happy there's a chance here

2 minutes ago, Keith P.A said:

Its not a cutter pattern

80 percent of the globe has no snow on the ground on Christmas.. be happy there's a chance here

that's why I can't figure out the need for cold/snow for x-mas guess it's the movies that make us think it's reality

14 minutes ago, Keith P.A said:

Folks, try stop trying to control weather. It never works. Take things day by day.Don;t look past day 10 on models and you might keep your sanity.Haven't we learned anything being on these boards the last 25 years?

Yeah, I don't look much beyond day 7. I look, but it's for entertainment purposes. I have seen patterns do complete flips at day 10 so much that it's not worth investing energy in.

And you can't control the weather. Yesterday we got to 58 degrees (it is now 24), but I took advantage of it and went for a little car ride and cleaned up in front of the house.

Take advantage of/enjoy whatever weather you get!

17 minutes ago, Keith P.A said:

Folks, try stop trying to control weather. It never works. Take things day by day.Don;t look past day 10 on models and you might keep your sanity.Haven't we learned anything being on these boards the last 25 years?

THIS!, I am very old to know the weather will do what it wants so screw the MJO, screw the models( because they cannot get even the day before right) and screw the pattern, LOL, ok now I will be banned haha.

4 minutes ago, VIRGAMAN said:

THIS!, I am very old to know the weather will do what it wants so screw the MJO, screw the models( because they cannot get even the day before right) and screw the pattern, LOL, ok now I will be banned haha.

It is amazing how bad the models have been in the short term here.

They had a large snow event for tonight. Then it totally disappeared to nothing. Now they are trying to bring some of that back and even hinting at freezing rain tomorrow morning.

So I just take it day by day, especially since I am not getting paid to make forecasts.

8 minutes ago, VIRGAMAN said:

THIS!, I am very old to know the weather will do what it wants so screw the MJO, screw the models( because they cannot get even the day before right) and screw the pattern, LOL, ok now I will be banned haha.

Best post of the month..cheers!!!

Theres a chance this board sees accumulating snow on Sunday and you guys are whistling past the graveyard

No more talk about a warm Xmas focus on the weekend

You waited an entire year for this are you guys insane

This is a pretty good signal at this stage.

5 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Theres a chance this board sees accumulating snow on Sunday and you guys are whistling past the graveyard

No more talk about a warm Xmas focus on the weekend

You waited an entire year for this are you guys insane

Plus if you believe you need two inches in December, even if you get one inch, maybe you can squeeze another inch out somewhere at the end of the month.

17 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Temps?

Dec 1 - Jan 15 was my period

Missed a 7 day warm up - no biggie

Both WX risk and JB see the cold back by 25th once that MJO pass bleeds off and p8 takes back over.

The warmup is a reset. Not winters over.

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Dec 1 - Jan 15 was my period

Missed a 7 day warm up - no biggie

Both WX risk and JB see the cold back by 25th once that MJO pass bleeds off and p8 takes back over.

I posted a WX map here 2 days ago if anyone finds it.

The warmup is a reset. Not winters over.

+TNH pattern takes back over

1 minute ago, Ben H said:

+TNH pattern takes back over

Says Roundy and BAM

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Says Roundy and BAM

Makes sense. None of the major parameters have really changed. Only wrench atm is a random burst of convection in p3/4. Won’t take long to wash that out