1 minute ago, Ben H said:

Makes sense. None of the major parameters have really changed. Only wrench atm is a random burst of convection in p3/4. Won’t take long to wash that out

When forecasting for 45 days out you're not going to see those features

But we may snow b4 and after the warmup

4 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

When forecasting for 45 days out you're not going to see those features

But we may snow b4 and after the warmup

Right, it’s impossible to find any nuances at range. Hell even at 2 weeks they’re way too smoothed out to see. Even the relaxation imo won’t be too crazy in the northeast. Cold air source still on our side of the globe and the negative wpo will fight. Near to above average is what I expect for the relaxation in the northeast. Not a torch.

9 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

When forecasting for 45 days out you're not going to see those features

But we may snow b4 and after the warmup

Sometimes you actually need a little warmup to snow.
Remember Super Bowl 2014? The temp contrast creates baroclinicity, which is how mid-latitude cyclones form anyway.

If the whole country is just super cold, you'll only get cold frontal passages with light snow,

3 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Sometimes you actually need a little warmup to snow.
Remember Super Bowl 2014? The temp contrast creates baroclinicity, which is how mid-latitude cyclones form anyway.

If the whole country is just super cold, you'll only get cold frontal passages with light snow,

Yeah, agreed. Thats what i was saying before. We have been well below normal for several weeks now, and notice the snow DC south has gotten? Not a crazy amount by any means, but more than a lot of us around here.

Will this "warm up" bring us back to normal levels?

2 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Yeah, agreed. Thats what i was saying before. We have been well below normal for several weeks now, and notice the snow DC south has gotten? Not a crazy amount by any means, but more than a lot of us around here.

Will this "warm up" bring us back to normal levels?

Depends on how long it last, but I am really hoping it energizes the STJ.

Canadian should correct SE given that the end of the RGEM looked like this

I've been saying from the beginning that NYC averages 60 degrees for the monthly max...usually its from 55-65 for the monthly max...I just hope it doesn't come for Christmas...

Gfs more amplified for sunday

Better

Almost there

Definite improvement from the 0 and 06z

Still correcting

22 minutes ago, uncle w said:

I've been saying from the beginning that NYC averages 60 degrees for the monthly max...usually its from 55-65 for the monthly max...I just hope it doesn't come for Christmas...

Here's something we can do..find a place where it is snowing Christmas eve,,turn on the cam and imagine it's your window..lol the age of technology

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

It is getting there. If we can get that .3 area up our way we are looking at a nice 3-5".

Cmc

Here is where the warm up begins.

This place should be much more energetic. We got a legit chance of a 2-4 (maybe 3-6) this weekend. Followed by wind and cold for a few days.

2 minutes ago, Blizzard2020 said:

This place should be much more energetic. We got a legit chance of a 2-4 (maybe 3-6) this weekend. Followed by wind and cold for a few days.

It's the low trust that's the problem.

4 minutes ago, Blizzard2020 said:

This place should be much more energetic. We got a legit chance of a 2-4 (maybe 3-6) this weekend. Followed by wind and cold for a few days.

If we get 2-3 model cycles, in a row, with a 2-4" event for the area...it'll perk up. There is zero consistency, at all, right now, and we are under 96 hours. We need a legit threat showing by 00z tonight.