15 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Here is where the warm up begins.

Than back to cold

6 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Than back to cold

The problem is the same thing we have been battling it's transitional...the cold ushers out the precip. rain/warm to precip out, cold in. Wash, rinse, repeat. As you see again come next weekend.

15 minutes ago, PaulTarsus said:

The problem is the same thing we have been battling it's transitional...the cold ushers out the precip. rain/warm to precip out, cold in. Wash, rinse, repeat. As you see again come next weekend.

78-79 winter

1 hour ago, uncle w said:

I've been saying from the beginning that NYC averages 60 degrees for the monthly max...usually its from 55-65 for the monthly max...I just hope it doesn't come for Christmas...

GFS has our 60 degree day Christmas Eve :D

Xmas day its cold

15 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Xmas day its cold

Thank you for all you do. I do appreciate the time you put into this. But this is the constant theme... and hopefully this weekend event doesn't fall apart...

Here is the precip for the 4 days before that cold gets in for Christmas. Then we go to cold and dry. with muddy ground... I do get that it's still 2 weeks away and will likely change but this is what we are currently looking at. Groundhog day over and over.

AI

2 minutes ago, PaulTarsus said:

Thank you for all you do. I do appreciate the time you put into this. But this is the constant theme... and hopefully this weekend event doesn't fall apart...

Here is the precip for the 4 days before that cold gets in for Christmas. Then we go to cold and dry. with muddy ground... I do get that it's still 2 weeks away and will likely change but this is what we are currently looking at. Groundhog day over and over.

Its only been cold dry. This area has half an inch of precip. Maybe out by you its been wetter? Even that, out to hoir 354, is barely an inch of precip in the tri-state. Today is "warmer" but will still be below the average high

3 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

AI

Thats a beaut Clark

4 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

AI

TONY

SAVES

WINTER

15 to 1 snow, if it happens

2 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

Its only been cold dry. This area has half an inch of precip. Maybe out by you its been wetter? Even that, out to hoir 354, is barely an inch of precip in the tri-state

Yes def wetter here. Raining heavy at times today after NWS put out discussion yesterday that today could be nowcast time, with possible heavy snow that never materialized. Instead we went to 42 degrees. All this talk of P8 for so long no doubt raised my expectations, but we have not seen any fruit of that affecting the snow positively.

WeatherBELL Premium

• Dam burst of cold lurking after Warmth

Joe Bastardi
Dec 10 2025

Dam burst of cold lurking after Warmth

Since Thankgiving, we have looked like this

and there has been alot of snow

 

Next 10 days look like this

This is the coldest of the 3 case studies I have used

2022

 

last year

 

but they were followed by surges of warmth, in 22 winter was over for many

 

last year

 

but the cold came back

But watch the classic dam burst the CFSV2 ( and to be blunt about it, me) are forecasting

day 6-13 the trough is backing into the west and the cold is building there

it starts coming out after that

 

and then it goes to this

So we see Christmas to Jan 4

 

MJO goes back into 8

WPO negative

 

So while the warming that follows the cold shot next week

is dang impressive

we see the start of the drainage down the plains around Christmas

in 22 it was over

last year it was over for 7-10 days then right back

this is the coldest of the 3 shots. and while the warmup for a while may be as strong as the other 2 years, the cold behind may be more so

3 hours ago, Keith P.A said:

Folks, try stop trying to control weather. It never works. Take things day by day.Don;t look past day 10 on models and you might keep your sanity.Haven't we learned anything being on these boards the last 25 years?

The govt already contros it via chem trails.

anyone for a swim in Lake George, place I want to be right now haha, heavy snow, zero visability , 27 degrees and 25 mph

earthcam.com/usa/newyork/lakegeorge/?cam=lakegeorge

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

It's the low trust that's the problem.

It has more to do with the fact we are in an historic snow drought and it has been four years without an above normal snowfall month in Central Park.

Just now, Sundog said:

It's the low trust that's the problem.

1 minute ago, tmagan said:

It has more to do with the fact we are in an historic snow drought and it has been four years without an above normal snowfall month in Central Park.

My point was we have thread after thread after thread of post regarding 300 plus hour snows and cold and finally we have something “maybe” coming our way and it is kind of crickets. 🤷‍♂️

Looks like the 12z Euro AI and regular Euro are a bit drier than their 6z counterparts.

Just now, Sundog said:

Looks like the 12z Euro AI and regular Euro are a bit drier than their 6z counterparts.

The AI models have been mediocre

14 minutes ago, PaulTarsus said:

Yes def wetter here. Raining heavy at times today after NWS put out discussion yesterday that today could be nowcast time, with possible heavy snow that never materialized. Instead we went to 42 degrees. All this talk of P8 for so long no doubt raised my expectations, but we have not seen any fruit of that affecting the snow positively.

that's a big bust-not even close for snow.