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December map, observations, punch and pie

THE GREAT PB
THE GREAT PB
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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CMC a rainer here. Sorry P B

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1 minute ago, Graupel said:

CMC a rainer here. Sorry P B

prateptype-imp.us_ne.png

Snow map has like 1-2 for down that way, don't think I buy that.

1 minute ago, Graupel said:

CMC a rainer here. Sorry P B

If it's because of surface temperatures only, I would probably discount it with that model in this setup.
Working, so I don't really have that much time to look.

Just now, FrankPizz said:

prateptype-imp.us_ne.png

Yeah that's not a rain look.

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    • Like 1
    15 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

    You had your first accumulations in November.

    Wow.

    Just now, Snowlover76 said:

    Wow.

    Wow what?

    • Author
    7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

    12z GGEM is actually getting too close for comfort

    This is all snow

    1765472613969867825119503985414.png

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    • Like 2
    • Author
    2 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

    Yeah that's not a rain look.

    Mid levels are cold.

    Sfc too

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    • Like 1
    Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    Mid levels are cold.

    Sfc too

    Yeah even if the GGEM literally showed 33-35 at the surface, unless the low goes over PA or something that isn't going to happen.
    This is coming out of a really, really cold air source.

    2 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    This is all snow

    1765472613969867825119503985414.png

    It's pushing warmth at 925mb:

    gdps-925th-us_ne-2025121112-66.png

    30 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

    EXACTLY what I have been harping on since November in here. It liertally Normal Temps here. Watch this asa we move closer - 2 days ago it was "torch" no wits normal. The Polar Regions have NO extremely poor sampling and this has created havoc for them .

    Nice trend no?? Stop gnashing teeth over the "warm up" guys it weeks away. MJO wave for phase 4/5 on 200 maps looks decent - weak as does the pahse 8 wave - weaker than the phase 4 wave.

    18Z Yesterday

    1766664000-JnsCDkJ8BwM.png

    6Z today

    1766664000-LtEAUd5uWkI.png

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    • Like 5
    • Author
    2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

    It's pushing warmth at 925mb:

    gdps-925th-us_ne-2025121112-66.png

    LLC air

    You're good.

    Arctic waves are filled w cold dense air.

    They typically if you want the truth max out at 6 to 9 types

    But the flow is fast so I cut accumulations in half.

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    • Like 2
    4 minutes ago, amugs said:

    EXACTLY what I have been harping on since November in here. It liertally Normal Temps here. Watch this asa we move closer - 2 days ago it was "torch" no wits normal. The Polar Regions have NO extremely poor sampling and this has created havoc for them .

    Nice trend no?? Stop gnashing teeth over the "warm up" guys it weeks away. MJO wave for phase 4/5 on 200 maps looks decent - weak as does the pahse 8 wave - weaker than the phase 4 wave.

    18Z Yesterday

    1766664000-JnsCDkJ8BwM.png

    6Z today

    1766664000-LtEAUd5uWkI.png

    •
    • Like 2
    5 minutes ago, amugs said:

    EXACTLY what I have been harping on since November in here. It liertally Normal Temps here. Watch this asa we move closer - 2 days ago it was "torch" no wits normal. The Polar Regions have NO extremely poor sampling and this has created havoc for them .

    Nice trend no?? Stop gnashing teeth over the "warm up" guys it weeks away. MJO wave for phase 4/5 on 200 maps looks decent - weak as does the pahse 8 wave - weaker than the phase 4 wave.

    18Z Yesterday

    1766664000-JnsCDkJ8BwM.png

    6Z today

    1766664000-LtEAUd5uWkI.png

    dumbo thinks no warmup for Christmas week

    Just now, Metfan88 said:

    dumbo thinks no warmup for Christmas week

    I agree with Dumbo

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    • Haha 5

    Gfs make a run at 60 around Christmas?

    2 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

    Gfs make a run at 60 around Christmas?

    GFS has 50 for xmas, ai gfs has 20s the day before and after xmas, and like 41 xmas day.

    4 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

    Gfs make a run at 60 around Christmas?

    Whats the record high?

    1 minute ago, FrankPizz said:

    GFS has 50 for xmas, ai gfs has 20s the day before and after xmas, and like 41 xmas day.

    GFS is out to lunch AIFS has been again the got to for these long range cold spells.

    SOI after a brief spike is going N again. Reember there is a 10-14 day lag with the SOI crash cneterd around DEC 5th.

    image.png

    Aifs has snow on Christmas eve

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    • Like 2

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    https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/topic/8399-december-map-observations-punch-and-pie/
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