4 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

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THIS IS MAJOR FOR JAN 10 - 25

THAT'S A LEGIT SPLIT AT 10MB

Carry on .

Happening today?

2 minutes ago, Ben H said:

Happening today?

Yes thats initialization

Gfs doesnt have a big torch. Nice press to the north.

3 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

Gfs doesnt have a big torch. Nice press to the north.

Yes, there is a very impressive gradient pattern.
If someone is going to tell me that the same models that miss precip by 50-100 miles rouintely are going to be correct with temperatures that change 20 degrees over 100 miles, well...

Warm air looks basically flushed out of the entire country by Dec 23.

Have to see if this is a trend supported by other global models, and if it is sustained.

1 hour ago, Keith P.A said:

-NAO has not helped at all the last 5 winters. Pacific rules and it looks crappy

That's not the point. -NAO was never mentiond. It has not been overall but that's is not true in 2021 the three (1/31-2/2) day snowstorm and four subsequent in a four week span following would have been ugatz without the N NAO. The+TNH means that the warmth is muted, shunted by the press from the arctic region. Yes, you need the -NAO for big boy storms in general. The positioning of the N NAO also has ramifications. The PAC is not crappy and yes it rules. If we were so crappy we'd be totally floodied with PAC AIR ala many Decembers before. We have amonster N WPO with a PNA that is spiking at the right time. We shall get a N EPO which we had as well and will come back. Time will tell.

I have said this ad naseum, the EURO Ai has been great this year with seeing the cold, perpetual cold at that, what will be talked about as a hallmark for this winter in my opinion.

DANG

the nao was and is neg now and going pos with the snow for Sunday...its been running below the forecast in the long run...

7 minutes ago, amugs said:

DANG

Go back 5 days ago and what did the ensembles have d15

Highs in the 20s for Christmason Euro

In my honest opinion, yes the upcoming pattern isn’t the ideal snow pattern. But with so much cold air in Canada close by and a TPV vortex around Hudson Bay all it will take is a well time high pressure to the north to filter in cold air before a potential storm threat. Things look active, and with ridging developing there should be more moisture to tap into then what we have now. I’d rather take my chances with cold to the north needing to be pulled down then what we have right now with a cold airmass that suppresses storm tracks through Virginia.

1 minute ago, Ben H said:

In my honest opinion, yes the upcoming pattern isn’t the ideal snow pattern. But with so much cold air in Canada close by and a TPV vortex around Hudson Bay all it will take is a well time high pressure to the north to filter in cold air before a potential storm threat. Things look active, and with ridging developing there should be more moisture to tap into then what we have now. I’d rather take my chances with cold to the north needing to be pulled down then what we have right now with a cold airmass that suppresses storm tracks through Virginia.

Totally agree. The cold air source is right there while remain pretty cold ourselves for the most part. If Canada was torching, there would be no hope, haha.

7 minutes ago, Ben H said:

In my honest opinion, yes the upcoming pattern isn’t the ideal snow pattern. But with so much cold air in Canada close by and a TPV vortex around Hudson Bay all it will take is a well time high pressure to the north to filter in cold air before a potential storm threat. Things look active, and with ridging developing there should be more moisture to tap into then what we have now. I’d rather take my chances with cold to the north needing to be pulled down then what we have right now with a cold airmass that suppresses storm tracks through Virginia.

100%

2 hours ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

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THIS IS MAJOR FOR JAN 10 - 25

THAT'S A LEGIT SPLIT AT 10MB

Carry on .

JAN 10 - 25 should turn frigid

31 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Go back 5 days ago and what did the ensembles have d1

Run to run change