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January 2026 Obs & Disco

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Had about 1” last night - snow fell lightly for a few hours!

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  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    Beautiful 12z ens runs today

This is lame nothing big to track for a week now..

28 minutes ago, BlizzardBill said:

This is lame nothing big to track for a week now..

Go look at the Euro and EPS

1 hour ago, BlizzardBill said:

This is lame nothing big to track for a week now..

If we were to start tracking something, probably won't be in till after the 16th

Here's what we are tracking

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-8521600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8478400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-vort500_z500-8435200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-east-mslp_anom-8500000.png

GFS is kinda close now

  • Author

The risk with the 3rd week of Jan pattern is not that it will be dry - plenty of amplification with the pattern.

The risk will be that the SE ridge gets strong enough to push the baroclinic zone northwest of the board.

695ac90c3e1e0.png

695ac8fa51210.png

59 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

695af2f62c726.png

Turns to snow for most on the next frame

1 hour ago, SnowMiser123 said:

The risk with the 3rd week of Jan pattern is not that it will be dry - plenty of amplification with the pattern.

The risk will be that the SE ridge gets strong enough to push the baroclinic zone northwest of the board.

695ac90c3e1e0.png

695ac8fa51210.png

Coastal 14th / 15th snow for most

Then gradient down to AC..

Snow for the board

Guys dont use anomalies in peak climo..

Look at the actual 850s

Not anomalies

image.gif

  • Author

Look at anomalies to better visualize what kind of low-level cold air is getting caught underneath the above normal heights - we saw this happen a lot in 2013-2014.

woke up to a dusting over nite

Long range doesnt look bad at all. Canada will be very very cold in the next couple weeks.

GEFS and EPS look fairly similar as well.

695bcf21ac81c.png

695bcf7840fb7.png

The down side is.... We have about 7-9 days of crap to get through first.

1 hour ago, jjvesnow said:

The down side is.... We have about 7-9 days of crap to get through first.

Better 7-9 days then 27-29 days.

I’m looking forward to the rain over the weekend to wash away the salt.

We need this break… we’ve had an exceptional 4-5 week period… two snowstorms and a few coatings to an inch and rather cold conditions.

looking fwd to this slight reprieve - then hopefully we can track one or two nice storms from mid month to Presidents’ Day. Would round out a nice winter…

50 minutes ago, Andrew said:

Better 7-9 days then 27-29 days.

I’m looking forward to the rain over the weekend to wash away the salt.

Same, the salt is overwhelming when it is THICK and there is no rain to wash it away

just got back from Florida-still about 3-4 inches of snow OTG here which is rare for late Dec-early Jan. Still in search of the east coast storm track which has eluded us....here's to tracking the rest of winter!

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