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January 2026 Obs & Disco

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GFS keeps showing Jan 18th

695fdc9e1f472.png

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  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    Beautiful 12z ens runs today

The GFS may be cooking with fire at the end of the run.

Period is 16 to 18. Biggest fear is they cancel each other out

Only icon looks good. Gfs looks bad cmc is better but sloppy.

Need huge euro and euro AI

8 minutes ago, USAwx said:

Period is 16 to 18. Biggest fear is they cancel each other out

Actually I think the 22-24 could be a better threat, possibly more STJ action.

18 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Actually I think the 22-24 could be a better threat, possibly more STJ action.

Never skip past a threat

Euro has a lot of chances

9 minutes ago, USAwx said:

Never skip past a threat

Oh no, the 16th exists, I just think the 22 is something bigger, because it may have more moisture to work with.

10 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

Euro has a lot of chances

you need to start posting maps with your words

if you don't, you won't be posting anywhere.

16 minutes ago, USAwx said:

you need to start posting maps with your words

if you don't, you won't be posting anywhere.

He's back.

i hear EPS has bombs

someone post the fucking Storm Vista maps

5 minutes ago, USAwx said:

@jjvesnow

@Tornadojay

@mapirl

post EPS from Storm Vista

image0-4.jpg

image0-5.jpg

thank you. Eps likes the 1st wave best. interesting.

Some folks had asked me to perform an analysis of both the Winter and Summer Average Temperature by Complete Decades for just here in Chester County from the 1900's thru the 2010's. You will see the very cyclical nature of our warming and cooling patterns. Overall, we have seen some slight warming of winters and conversely some cooling of our summers across Chester County PA. The warmest decade for both summers and winters was way back in the 1930's. Of note so far here in the partial decade of the 2020's we are so far running as the warmest winter decade since the 1930's!!. However, last winter was the coldest winter in 10 years and we are off to a colder than normal start to this winter so we will wait and see if this is the start of the next cooling trend across the County. These are also updated on the http://www.chescowx.com website. Let me know if you have any questions.image.thumb.png.63b18e09e542784abfa1c4653c6e7692.pngimage.thumb.png.51c9cd9b39b063c14cb054b166e336a0.png

All the talk of warm period and we will end up with like 2 AN days (today/tomorrow), Sat looks like upper 30s and rain on east wind and continued BN/N temps for the next 10. Rain will help clear the salt and has been warm enough to wipe out most non-north facing snow/sleet cover. Fresh slate for 2H of Jan.

Yesterday we reached 65 degrees out here and today it is snowing and 34, and there is snow and sleet starting to stick to my deck.

The GFS looked like it was going to do something for the 18th, but it crapped out.

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