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January 2026 Obs & Disco

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3 minutes ago, USAwx said:

Cool points out snow maps suck but that may not mean much this far out

Precip maps have been consistently low.

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    Beautiful 12z ens runs today

8 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Precip maps haven’t been consistently low.

image.gif

Trending this way tho, no?

image.png

Could be one hell of a snow shower/squall line IF this verifies

1768168800-Z2bTGpGmCHM.png

1768168800-dns0QqJpZDs.png

1768172400-etoUMOdAKDM.png

Ensembles are very dry

Just now, amugs said:

Could be one hell of a snow shower/squall line IF this verifies

1768168800-Z2bTGpGmCHM.png

1768168800-dns0QqJpZDs.png

1768172400-etoUMOdAKDM.png

Oh wow. Nice catch there

Is the 18th a threat anymore? No one’s talking about it lol

The jet looks good on GEFS too

gfs-ens_uv250_eus_fh96_trend_1.gif

2 minutes ago, amugs said:

The jet looks good on GEFS too

gfs-ens_uv250_eus_fh96_trend_1.gif

Ensembles definitely moved in the right direction.

Icon looks good at h500 but surface didn’t reflect… whole system slips

GFS looks good but precip is still meh

image.png

Precip field looks poor on most guidance. But the 500 mb track argues better . Not sure if tithe junk in the Atlantic is screwing the moisture

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Just now, saturn510 said:

Precip field looks poor on most guidance. But the 500 mb track argues better . Not sure if tithe junk in the Atlantic is screwing the moisture

Yeah. Seems it’s an issue with all models. Not sure what’s causing it exactly, but it’s very notable

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GEFS are a bit better

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