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January 2026 Obs & Disco

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  • Author
2 hours ago, Rdd9108 said:

@SnowMiser123 @PaulTarsus overperforming clipper perhaps?

Yeah, Jan will be off to a fast start for PIT. PIT may go on a nice streak for days in a row where it snows in this pattern starting tomorrow. I get back right after NYD.

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  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    Beautiful 12z ens runs today

Rgem

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_78.png

9 hours ago, uncle w said:

20251229_043640.jpg20251229_043622.jpgfrom January 8th to Feb 7th NYC got six major storms...five with snow...one big blizzard...the stormiest month ever for the winter time...

NAO / La Ninas can be dry early and the models aren't that enthused about the earlier N branch systems.

The Jan 8 SW is out of the S branch and is probably our 1st shot at something significant

6 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

NAO / La Ninas can be dry early and the models aren't that enthused about the earlier N branch systems.

The Jan 9 SW is out of the S branch and is probably our 1st shot at something significant

Snowy feel new years on the Euro for you guys. But I said this yesterday.

30 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Snowy feel new years on the Euro for you guys. But I said this yesterday.

Yeh there are a few lighy events / SSN in the flow...

Could put down a coating in a few spots.

2 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Yeh there are a few lighy events / SSN in the flow...

Could put down a coating in a few spots.

The problem with the 9th is that right now it looks cold, but dominated by HP.

I mean we're 11 days out, so there could be big changes. But right now the best certainty is light, northern stream threat around New Years and Jan 5-6.

By Jan 7 a fresh Arctic airmass will b in plsce.place.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-t2m_f_anom-7787200.png

Jan 8 a SW comes out of the S branch to the BM

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_anom-7895200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp-7895200.png

The EPS has a very KU classic snow signal

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-snow_48hr-7981600.png

Late month EPO correlated Tropical upward motion with 2m anomalies

Ripped from Webb

This is supported by the SSW lag

The CONUS and Canada will warm for 7 days because the WPO goes positive but we will are saved from a torch because of the - NAO.

January on balance should finish BN temps wise with AN snow.

Just be patient

G9VTf6JWsAAJwIj.jpeg

G9VTf6CWwAEYJ4W.jpeg

This has a January 27, 2011 look…January definitely looks interesting

ec-aifs_z500_mslp_nhem_42.png

looks can be deceiving...this is January 25th 1968...NYC managed a few flakes from this...

1968012518.gif

47 minutes ago, goldalex said:

This has a January 27, 2011 look…January definitely looks interesting

ec-aifs_z500_mslp_nhem_42.png

For my backyard the Jan. 27th was better than Boxing Day. Just sayin’

Icon

prateptype_cat_icon-imp.webp

Rgem

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_66.png

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_68.png

33 minutes ago, uncle w said:

looks can be deceiving...this is January 25th 1968...NYC managed a few flakes from this...

1968012518.gif

Oh my God looking out the window in 4th grade wondering..WHY ISNT IT SNOWING IN BROOKLYN..The cloud deck was low but not a flake

ICON and GFS have the Clipper for the 5th

  • Author

GFS continues to cave to the Euro for the overall Jan pattern

6 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

GFS continues to cave to the Euro for the overall Jan pattern

It was close for the 1st week of January with the coastal.

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