Deep Mind AI

33 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

@Graupel I have 12 to 18 outlined for us

I think it wants to snow this winter. In 5 days this may look very different but yield the same results.

I think we got the storm. We have 4 days to up the phasing/qpf

32 minutes ago, CooL said:

I think we got the storm. We have 4 days to up the phasing/qpf

Everything is riding on the 18z GFS.

1 minute ago, Rdd9108 said:

this view does many of us no good. post the REGIONAL view

5 minutes ago, USAwx said:

this view does many of us no good. post the REGIONAL view

Cools back.....you know its on!!

ENS qpf

Another model to the mayhem

1 hour ago, USAwx said:

Deep Mind AI

This is a great depiction of where my thoughts lie for this storm other than that thin straight line of 12-15 painted over the ocean which just is silly. Rooting for this AI with maybe a bit of northerly bump to be correct.

I think this result would bring fairly uniform results for everyone on the board. Perhaps we can still get a few ticks north and add in high ratios. It does not even need to move north by as much as 100 miles and it would really be a fabulous MECS for everyone.

Some afternoon musings:

• This is most excited I've been at this lead time since Feb 2021

• We have not had the potential for this kind of overrunning since maybe 13-14 winter? Overrunning -> coastal is everyone's wet dream scenario, which some models are showing

• You rarely get 6-8" from a storm like this, it's usually a whiff or a monster. Many HECS in our past have looked like this at this lead time

• Excited that Joshua is back posting CMCE maps and Cool isn't dead

NAM looks great

2 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Some afternoon musings:

• This is most excited I've been at this lead time since Feb 2021

• We have not had the potential for this kind of overrunning since maybe 13-14 winter? Overrunning -> coastal is everyone's wet dream scenario, which some models are showing

• You rarely get 6-8" from a storm like this, it's usually a whiff or a monster. Many HECS in our past have looked like this at this lead time

• Excited that Joshua is back posting CMCE maps and Cool isn't dead

happy to see you too. i like this setup, but I want to see more ampage. we are still fighting slippage, we cannot get amped enough for this storm.

Josh - does the NAVy not run anymore? Didn’t u use that model in such a way? Where the Low has to be over Buffalo to mean anything for us… I can’t exactly recall..

5 minutes ago, USAwx said:

happy to see you too. i like this setup, but I want to see more ampage. we are still fighting slippage, we cannot get amped enough for this storm.

I want ampage too, but this is PD2 level overrunning ...

Also, 20:1 ratios are absurd. Be happy with 12-15:1

2 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said:

Josh - does the NAVy may run anymore? Didn’t u use that model in such a way? Where the Low has to be over Buffalo to mean anything for us… I can’t exactly recall..

it is no longer operationally run

Just now, danstorm said:

I want ampage too, but this is PD2 level overrunning ...

Also, 20:1 ratios are absurd. Be happy with 12-15:1

you're in a better spot than me. i need major ampage.

8 minutes ago, USAwx said:

NAM looks great

Precip field was pretty north at 84 and high was 1046 so weaker than some other models fwiw